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Journal : MEDIA STATISTIKA

PEMODELAN HYBRID ARIMA-ANFIS UNTUK DATA PRODUKSI TANAMAN HORTIKULTURA DI JAWA TENGAH Tarno, Tarno; Rusgiyono, Agus; Warsito, Budi; Sudarno, Sudarno; Ispriyanti, Dwi
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 11, No 1 (2018): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (506.342 KB) | DOI: 10.14710/medstat.11.1.65-78

Abstract

The research purpose is modeling adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) combined with autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) for time series data. The main topic is application of Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test for input selection, determining the number of membership function and generating rules in ANFIS. Based on partial autocorrelation (PACF) plot, the lag inputs which are thought have an effect to data are evaluated by using LM-test. Procedure of LM test is applied to determine the optimal number of membership functions. Based on the result, a number of rule-bases are generated. The best model is applied for forecasting potato production data in Central Java. The case study of this research is modeling monthly data of potato production from January 2004 up to December 2016. From empirical study, ANFIS optimal was obtained with lag-1 and lag-11 as inputs with two membership functions and two fuzzy rules. The hybrid method based on ARIMA and ANFIS is also implemented. The result of the prediction with a hybrid method is compared to the ANFIS and ARIMA. Based on the value of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), hybrid model ARIMA-ANFIS has a good performance as a model of ANFIS and ARIMA individually.Keywords: Time Series, Potato production, hybrid, ANFIS, ARIMA, LM-test
ANALISIS MODEL PASIEN RAWAT JALAN RUMAH SAKIT KARIADI DENGAN PENDEKATAN POISSON-EKSPONENSIAL Ispriyanti, Dwi; Sugito, Sugito; Rusgiyono, Agus
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 7, No 1 (2014): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (598.673 KB) | DOI: 10.14710/medstat.7.1.37-46

Abstract

In daily activities, we often face in a situation of queuing. Most people have experiences in a queuing situation  or a waiting  situation . The queuing can be found easily in a human life. For example is the queuing  in the Kariadi Hospital. The Queuing occur from the registration to the service stage. Similarly, in ambulatory patients of Kariadi Hospital, so it is necessary to analyze the queuing effectivity, whether   the queueing   system is optimal or not. One of the statistical methods to analyze the things mentioned above are queuing theory. This research is used  to analyze the queuing service system at the Kariadi hospital Keywords: Kariadi Hospital, The Queuing
ANALISIS TINGKAT STRESS WANITA KARIR DALAM PERAN GANDANYA DENGAN REGRESI LOGISTIK ORDINAL (STUDI KASUS PADA TENAGA KERJA WANITA DI RS. MARDI RAHAYU KUDUS) Nova, Nova; Ispriyanti, Dwi
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 5, No 1 (2012): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (658.586 KB) | DOI: 10.14710/medstat.5.1.37-48

Abstract

Currently, the role of women has shifted from traditional to modern roles. From only a traditional role to bear children and run the household, women now have a social role which can be a career with supported higher education. This can result in conflict dual role as worker and housewife for women who have a family, so easy to cause stress. Several factors are thought to affect levels of stress, especially for career women is child care, housekeeping assistance, communication and interaction with children and husband, time for family, determining priorities, career pressures and family pressures, and the husband's view of the dual role of women. Based on the test independence of variables, seven variables have a relationship with the level of stress career woman.By using the likelihood ratio test and Wald test is found to be two factors affect the stress levels of women workers in Mardi Rahayu Kudus hospital are a time for family and the support of her husband in a career.   Keywords: Stress Level, Dual Role Conflict, Ordinal Logistic Regression, Mardi Rahayu Hospital.
PEMODELAN DATA KEMISKINAN DI PROVINSI SUMATERA BARAT DENGAN METODE GEOGRAPHICALLY WEIGHTED REGRESSION (GWR) Maggri, Ilham; Ispriyanti, Dwi
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 6, No 1 (2013): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (681.466 KB) | DOI: 10.14710/medstat.6.1.37-49

Abstract

Counting the number of poor have often been modeled as a function of a global regression, which meant that the regression coefficient value applied to all geographic regions. Though this assumption was not always valid because of the differences in geographic locations most likely causing the spatial heterogeneity. In case of spatial heterogeneity, the regression parameters would vary spatially, so if the global regression model was applied, would produce an average value of those regression parameters which vary spatially. This study uses the method Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) to analyze data that contains spatial heterogeneity. In GWR model estimation, the model parameters are obtained by using the Weighted Least Square (WLS) which gives a different weighting in each location. This study discusses the factors that influence the level of poverty in the province of West Sumatra. Suitability test of the model results shows that there is no influence of spatial factors on the level of poverty in the province of West Sumatra. The results shows that there are four variables that are assumed to affect the level of poverty in the province of West Sumatra, they are the variable of floor space, the facility to defecate, ability to pay the cost of health center / clinic and education  levels of household head. The four variables have a similar effect in every city and county.Keywords : Poverty, Spatial Heterogeneity, Geographically Weighted Regression
ANALISIS KLASIFIKASI MASA STUDI MAHASISWA PRODI STATISTIKA UNDIP DENGAN METODE SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINE (SVM) DAN ID3 (ITERATIVE DICHOTOMISER 3) Ispriyanti, Dwi; Hoyyi, Abdul
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 9, No 1 (2016): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (642.835 KB) | DOI: 10.14710/medstat.9.1.15-29

Abstract

Graduation is the final stage of learning process activities in college. Undergraduate study period in UNDIP?s academic regulations is scheduled in 8 semesters (4 years) or less and maximum of 14 semesters (7 years). Department of Statistics is one of six departments in the Faculty of Science and Mathematics UNDIP. Study  period in this department can be influenced by many factors. Those factor are Grade Point Average (GPA) or IPK, gender, scholarship, parttime, organizations, and university entrance pathways. The aim of this paper is to determine the accuracy factors classification. We use SVM (Support Vector Machine method) and ID3 (Iterative Dichotomiser 3). The comparison of SVM and ID3 method, both for training and testing the data generate good accuracy, namely 90%. Especially ID3 training data gives better result than SVM. Keywords:  SVM, ID3
DISTRIBUSI INVERS GAMMA PADA INFERENSI BAYESIAN Sugito, Sugito; Ispriyanti, Dwi
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 3, No 2 (2010): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (416.831 KB) | DOI: 10.14710/medstat.3.2.59-68

Abstract

One of the methods which can be used in statistical inferences  is Bayesian inference. It is combine sample distribution and prior distribution, that can be resulted posterior distribution. In this article, sample distribution use univariate normal distribution. If prior distribution for variance with known mean is gamma inverse distribution, then posterior distribution is formed gamma inverse distribution. If Prior distribution use non-informative prior, then have the posterior distribution, by the  marginal distribution of mean and varian. Also posterior distribution formed by gamma inverse distribution.   Keywords: Gamma Inverse Distribution, Posterior Distribution, Non-Informatif Prior
PENERAPAN REGRESI LOGISTIK MULTINOMIAL PADA PEMILIHAN ALAT KONTRASEPSI WANITA (STUDI KASUS DI DESA TONGGARA KECAMATAN KEDUNGBANTENG KABUPATEN TEGAL) Sulistio, Erna; Ispriyanti, Dwi
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 3, No 1 (2010): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (418.864 KB) | DOI: 10.14710/medstat.3.1.31-40

Abstract

The development of a growing population, causing many problems within national development, so the program necessary to reduce the population of family planning program, one of the programs is Contraceptive Services. A variety of contraceptive choices provided by the government especially for women, including: pill, injection, IUD, implant, tissue KB, tubectomy, cream, jelly, and foam. The selection of contraceptives for women have to weigh various factors. So we want to know the factors which influence women in choosing a particular contraceptive. By testing the significance of the multinomial logistic regression model through the G test statistic can be shown there are four factors that influence contraceptive use, namely maternal age, number of living children, age of last child, and pregnancy plans. Keywords: Contraception, Multinomial Logistic Regression
KLASIFIKASI KEMISKINAN DI KOTA SEMARANG MENGGUNAKAN ALGORITMA CHISQUARE AUTOMATIC INTERACTION DETECTION (CHAID) DAN CLASSIFICATION AND REGRESSION TREE (CART) Ispriyanti, Dwi; Prahutama, Alan; Mustafid, Mustafid; Tarno, Tarno
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 12, No 1 (2019): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (360.866 KB) | DOI: 10.14710/medstat.12.1.63-72

Abstract

Decreasing poverty level is the first goal of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Poverty in Central Java from 2002 to 2017 has decreased, as well as the city of Semarang. Therefore, it is necessary to examine the factors that determine the decline in poverty classification in the city of Semarang. The classification analysis in statistics uses one classification tree. Several methods using classification trees include CART, CHAID, C45 and ID3 algorithms. In this study the methods used were CART and CHAID Algorithms. CART and CHAID algorithms are binary classification trees. The CART separation rules use split goodness op, while CHAID uses CHI-Square. In the analysis, the value of using CART was 95.2% while CHAID was 95.2%. While the factors that influence poverty classification using CHAID include the acceptance of poor rice, the main building materials of the house walls, and the main fuel for cooking. Whereas with the CART Algorithm the variables that influence are the main fuels for cooking, poor rice receipts, the number of household members, final disposal sites, sources of drinking water, the household head's business field, roofing materials, and building walls.
OPTIMISASI MULTIOBJEKTIF UNTUK PEMBENTUKAN PORTOFOLIO Hoyyi, Abdul; Ispriyanti, Dwi
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 8, No 1 (2015): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (374.978 KB) | DOI: 10.14710/medstat.8.1.31-39

Abstract

Investing in asset such as stock; besides generate profit (return), it is also deal with a risk of loss, so that portofolio diversification is needed to reduce the risk. In the establishment of stock portofolio, the investors seeking to maximize the expected return of investment with a certain level of risk that still can be accepted. Portofolios that can achieve the above objectives called optimal portofolios. The application of multiobjective optimization on the establishment of the optimal portofolio is to maximize the return and minimize the risk at the same time. The aim of this research is to analize the proportion of each stock in order to form an optimal portofolio and to analyze the level of benefits and risks of the portofolio which is formed in accordance with the preferences of investors. The data used are monthly stock data of ASII, TLKM, SMGR, LPKR and BBNI. The optimal portofolio for risk seeker investors is a portofolio that used coefficient  k =0,01, namely by investing in SMGR whilst the optimal portofolio for risk indifference investors is a portfolia which has coefficient 1 ? k ? 100 namely by investing in ASII, TLKM, SMGR, LPKR, and BBNI. Whereas, the optimal portofolio for risk averse investors is a portfolio which has coefficient k =1000 that is by investing in ASII, TLKM, SMGR, LPKR, and BBNI. Keywords: Portofolio, Multi Objective Optimization
PENENTUAN MODEL REGRESI TERPOTONG ATAS DENGAN METODE MAKSIMUM LIKEHOOD Jalarno, Dydaestury; Ispriyanti, Dwi
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 1, No 2 (2008): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (236.26 KB) | DOI: 10.14710/medstat.1.2.53-62

Abstract

Model regresi terpotong atas merupakan suatu model regresi dengan nilai-nilai variabel dependen y < a, dengan a adalah suatu titik potong atas yang dipilih berdasarkan penelitian. Dengan demikian, model regresi terpotong lebih tepat jika digunakan untuk penelitian yang berorientasi pada suatu karakteristik tertentu dari obyek pengamatan yaitu variabel dependennya. Distribusi yang digunakan untuk model regresi ini adalah distribusi normal terpotong atas. Estimasi parameter regresinya menggunakan metode Maksimum Likelihood dan metode iteratif Newton Raphson sedangkan pengujian signifikansi model menggunakan Uji Likelihood Rasio, uji t dan harga koefisien determinasi (R2)
Co-Authors A Rusgiyono Abdul Hoyyi Agus Rusgiyono Ain Hafidita Alan Prahutama Ana Kartikawati Anisa Septi Rahmawati, Anisa Septi Anjan Setyo Wahyudi, Anjan Setyo Arief Rachman Hakim Atika Elsadining Tyas, Atika Elsadining Aulia Ikhsan Avia Enggar Tyasti, Avia Enggar Berta Elvionita Fitriani, Berta Elvionita Bitoria Rosa Niashinta, Bitoria Rosa Budi Warsito Dedi Nugraha Di Asih I Maruddani Diah Safitri Diah Wulandari Dita Ruliana, Dita Dwi Rahmayani, Dwi Dyan Anggun Krismala Dydaestury Jalarno Erna Sulistio Evi Yulia Handaningrum Farah, Sania Anisa Firdha Rahmatika Pratami, Firdha Rahmatika Gera Rozalia, Gera Hasbi Yasin Hasibuan, Rafida Zahro Henny Widayanti, Henny Ilham Maggri Irawati Tamara, Irawati Islami, Firda Dinny Jesica, Haniela Puja Kishatini Kishartini Ma'sum, M. Ali Margaretha, Cylvia Evasari Marlia Aide Revani Masfuhurrizqi Iman Maulida Azkiya, Maulida Maulida Najwa, Maulida Moch. Abdul Mukid Muhammad Fitri Lutfi Anshari Muhammad Rosyid Abdurrahman Mustafid Mustafid Nanci Rajagukguk, Nanci Nandang Fahmi Jalaludin Malik Natalia P P, Sylvi Natalia P P, Sylvi Nova Nova Noviana Nurhayati Nurwihda Safrida Umami Oka Afranda, Oka Pangestikasari, Merinda Pritha Sekar Wijayanti Pusphita Anna Octaviani Rahafattri Ariya Fauzannissa, Rahafattri Ariya Rahmah Merdekawaty, Rahmah Rahmaniar, Ratna Ramadhani, Puput Rany Wahyuningtias Ratih Nurmalasari, Ratih Ratna Pratiwi Ria Sutitis, Ria Rio Tongaril Simarmata Rita Rahmawati Riza Adi Priantoro, Riza Adi Sa'adah, Alfi Faridatus Sherly Candraningtyas Sindy Saputri Sisca Agustin Diani Budiman, Sisca Agustin Diani Sri Maya Sari Damanik Sudarno Sudarno Sugito Sugito Suhendra, Muhammad Arif Suparti Suparti Suparti, S. Syilfi Syilfi Tarno Tarno Taryono, Arkadina Prismatika Noviandini Tatik Widiharih Tiani Wahyu Utami Triastuti Wuryandari Trimono, Trimono Warsito Budi Wulandari, Annisa Ayu Yani Puspita Kristiani, Yani Puspita Yuciana Wilandari