Articles

DAMPAK EKONOMI PENURUNAN DUKUNGAN DOMESTIK PRODUK PERTANIAN NEGARA MAJU DAN PELUANGNYA BAGI INDONESIA Oktaviani, Rina; Puspitawati, Eka; Novianti, Tanti
Jurnal Manajemen & Agribisnis Vol. 3 No. 2 (2006): Vol. 3 No. 2 September 2006
Publisher : School of Business, Bogor Agricultural University (SB-IPB)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (9081.935 KB) | DOI: 10.17358/jma.3.2.89-101

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Penurunan Dukungan Domestik Produk Pertanian merupakan salah satu Pilar dalam perundingan WTO yang telah disepakati bersama. Dengan mengguanakan model dan data GTAP terbukti bahwa penurunan dukungan domestik di negara-negara maju tidak mengakibatkan kesejahteraannya menurun. Kenyataan yang ada menunjukkan bahwa negara-negara maju masih  terus melakukan berbagai bentuk dukungan domestik. Negara-negara berkembang termasuk Indonesia, dengan anggaran yang terbatas dirugikan dengan tingginya dukungan domestik yang diberikan negara-negara maju. Peluang akan tercipta, terutama untuk produk olahan hasil pertanian bagi Indonesia jika negara-negara maju mau mengurangi dukungan domestiknya.
THE ECONOMIC CRISIS IN 1997 HAS CAUSED THE RUPIAH EXCHANGE RATE TO DEPRECIATE FROM ABOUT RP 2,500/US DOLLAR TO RP 15,000/US DOLLAR IN THE TIME OF CRISIS AND TO AROUND RP 9,300/US DOLLAR RECENTLY.  THIS CONDITION CAUSED THE AUTHORITY TO FOCUS THEIR POLICY IN STABILIZING RUPIAH  AND REDUCING INFLATION RATE.  THE OBJECTIVES OF THIS RESEARCH ARE FIRSTLY, TO ANALYZE THE RESPONSE OF THE VARIABLES OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX (IPI), MONEY SUPPLY AND INTEREST RATE WHEN THE SHOCKS TO EXCHANGE RATE A Riyadh, M. Ilham; Oktaviani, Rina; Siregar, Hermanto
Forum Pasca Sarjana Vol. 32 No. 3 (2009): Forum Pascasarjana
Publisher : Forum Pasca Sarjana

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Abstract

The economic crisis in 1997 has caused the rupiah exchange rate to depreciate from about Rp 2,500/US dollar to Rp 15,000/US dollar in the time of crisis and to around Rp 9,300/US dollar recently.  This condition caused the authority to focus their policy in stabilizing rupiah  and reducing inflation rate.  The objectives of this research are firstly, to analyze the response of the variables of industrial production index (IPI), money supply and interest rate when the shocks to exchange rate and inflation take place; secondly, to analyze the contributions of  IPI, inflation rate, money supply and interest rate differentiation in explaining the variation of exchange rate and inflation rate of Indonesia; and thirdly, to formulate the monetary policy of implication stabilizing the rupiah and inflation rate.  The results show that the shock to the rupiah exchange rate has resulted in a very high depreciation responded by an increase in money supply and price but IPI decreases.  To reduce depreciation, authority can increase the interest rate. Meanwhile the shock to inflation are responded directly by increases in Bank Indonesia certificate rate so that the money supply decreases, exchange rate appreciates, and IPI decreases.  To stabilize the rupiah exchange rate and the inflation rate, monetary authority should carry out the tight money policy through a relatively high interest rate, so capital inflow will take place.   Key words: monetary policy, rupiah exchange rate, inflation rate, industrial production index, vector autoregressive
DAMPAK IMPLEMENTASI MANDAT KONSUMSI BAHAN BAKAR NABATI TERHADAP PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA Sugiyono, Sugiyono; Oktaviani, Rina; Hakim, Dedi Budiman; Arifin, Bustanul
JURNAL EKONOMI DAN KEBIJAKAN PEMBANGUNAN Vol. 1 No. 1 (2012): Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pembangunan
Publisher : IPB University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (1036.408 KB) | DOI: 10.29244/jekp.1.1.62-78

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Before 2006, biofuel mandate consumption was expected to contribute to increase economic growth and job creation, decrease poverty, mitigate climate change, and improve energy security. The objective of the study is an analysis of implementation of biofuel mandate in Indonesian economy. This research applied the long run of Recursive Dynamic General Equilibrium (RDGE) model by Indonesian Forecasting. Three simulations are used to increase of biofuel demand, seconds to increase of biofuel agriculture land expansion, deforestation, and rise fixed capital, and to last change agricultural and biofuel productivity. The policy of biofuel mandate implementation is effectively to increase economic growth, rise household income, and improve carbon emission, but less effective to built food security and feed, decline employment by industri for non biofuel agriculture, and descend forest and other forest outputs in Indonesia. The policy implication is to increase output for non biofuel agriculture by rising productivity and policy of import and inflation targetting to take sides for welfare farmer?s and food employee?s.  Keywords: Biofuel, RDGE, food security, carbon emission
KENAIKAN TARIF DASAR LISTRIK DAN RESPON KEBIJAKAN UNTUK MEMINIMISASI DAMPAK NEGATIF TERHADAP PEREKONOMIAN Isdinarmiati, Tri; Oktaviani, Rina
JURNAL EKONOMI DAN KEBIJAKAN PEMBANGUNAN Vol. 1 No. 1 (2012): Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pembangunan
Publisher : IPB University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (868.413 KB) | DOI: 10.29244/jekp.1.1.29-42

Abstract

Electricity is one of the strategic commodities in Indonesia. The Increasing of electrical price (so called TDL stand for Tarif Dasar Listrik) administered by the government will be negative impact on Indonesian economic performance. Based on this research analysis, a rise of TDL will have negative impact on macro and sectoral economic performance. This study aims to analyze the effects of a rise of TDL and policy responses to minimize its negative impacts on Indonesian economic performance. The data which is used in this research areInput Output Table, Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) and SUSENAS data. Sources of data obtained from Board Central of Statistics. The analysis using Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model is called INDOTDL CGE model. The simulation results show that a rise of TDL will have negative impact oneconomic growth, household consumption, export, employment and sectoral demand.  This study also shows that an increase of  efficiency in electricity sector by 10 percent is expected to decrease the electrical price.  In addition, a rise of  TDL which is followed by an increase of efficiency or decrease of value added tax (VAT) policy in all sector have positive impact on macro and sectoral economic performance on Indonesian. The most effective policy to economic improvementis to increase efficiency of electricity sector, so TDL doesn?t need to be increased.Keywords : TDL, CGE, Efficiency, VAT, Economic Performance
DAMPAK INFRASTRUKTUR JALAN TERHADAP PEREKONOMIAN PULAU JAWA-BALI DAN SUMATERA Napitupulu, Muktar; Tambunan, Mangara; Daryanto, Arief; Oktaviani, Rina
Jurnal Jalan-Jembatan Vol 28 No 1 (2011)
Publisher : Pusat Penelitian dan Pengembangan Jalan dan Jembatan

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Abstract

ABSTRAKPrasarana jalan dan jembatan berperan dalam penggunaan ekonomi bangsa, namun dampak terhadap  perekonomian belum diteliti secara cermat. Tulisan ini bermaksud menganalisis dampak ekonomi investasi jalan dan jembatan dengan model Inter-regional Social Accounting Matrix Jawa Sumatera 2007.Hasil analilsis menunjukan: (1) Investasi jalan dan jembatan di Sumatera dan Jawa-Bali paling dinikmati oleh sektor perdagangan, restoran dan hotel,dan sektor industri makanan, minuman dan tembakau namun kurang berpihak pada sektor pertanian; (2) Keterkaitan atau ketergantungan sektor-sektor produksi tehadap konstruksi jalan dan jembatan di Sumatera cukup besar; (3) Dampak limpahan sektor jalan dan jembatan dari Sumatera ke Jawa-Bali berkisar 5 kali lebih besar daripada limoahan dari Jawa-Bali ke Sumatera menyebabkan kesenjangan oendapatan Sumatera dengan Jawa-Bali semakin melebar; (4) Rumah tangga pengusaha golongan rendah di desa memperoleh pendapatan tertinggi dari investasi jalandi Sumatera sementara untuk investasi jalan di Jawa-Bali rumah tangga pengusaha golongan rendah di kota memperoleh pendapatan yang terbesar; (5) Kontribusi jalan dan jembatan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Jawwa-Bali dan Sumatera terhadap tahun 2007 naik 0.17 persen tahun 2008, naik 0.20 persen 2009 dan naik 0.28 persen tahun 2010.Kata Kunci : Interegional Social Accounting Matrix, dampak limpahan, ketertarikan belakang dan kedepan, analisis penggandaan, pertumbuhan ekonomi
PERENCANAAN PENGELOLAAN SUMBERDAYA LAHAN YANG TERKENA DAMPAK PENGGUNAAN LAHAN UNTUK PENEMBANGAN KAPUR Haridjaja, Oteng; Haryanti, Wiwik Dwi; Oktaviani, Rina
Jurnal Ilmu Pertanian Indonesia Vol. 16 No. 1 (2011): Jurnal Ilmu Pertanian Indonesia
Publisher : Institut Pertanian Bogor

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The need of cement industry mine material to support the requirements on agricultural land resource as livelihood is two different interest that have a potential to emerge conflict of interest on nature resource utilization. Knowing the nature and human resource potentials as well as determining the direction of utilization planning strategy for sustainable land management. Research was carried out from November 2008 - April 2009. This is a descriptive qualitative study to describe the field condition. For determining sustainable land utilizationand management priority was used AHP by pair elements comparison method. General condition explained that land utilization for ecologically agriculture commodities is on appropriate land: un-suitability (NS), marginally suitability (S-3t, and S-3gt) for seasonal plants, as well as un-suitability (NS), marginally suitability (S-3te), and moderatly suitability (S-2te) for annual plants. The agricultural, industrial, and husbandry commodities that have proper economic potential is cassava, long bean, cucumber, mangoes, wood (albasia), tapioca industry, and goats husbandry. Main job as farmers is 85 %, 83°/o don't have an own land so they need an agricultural land. It is very important for their who have livelihood as a paisant, 72°/o moreover for theirs who were in a productive age. Result of AHPto determine the direction of land utilization and management pre, post, and non mining land showed that the stakeholders group who have important role on all land condition is the corporate. Priority ecology aspect on pre and post mining, socially aspect is on non-mining land utilization and management, the main choice for non-mining land utilization and management is food plants. Although value priority of bio-fuel plantation is higher than value priority of food plants, but food plants have more useful in social and economic. Priority pre-mining land utilization and management is food plants, and post-mining is land management based on sustainable environment.
TRADE BARRIER ELIMINATION, ECONOMICS OF SCALE AND MARKET COMPETITION: COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL Widyastutik, Widyastutik; Nazara, Suahasil; Oktaviani, Rina; Simarmata, Djamester
Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Vol 6, No 2 (2017)
Publisher : Faculty of Economic and Business Syarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University of Jakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (555.958 KB) | DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v6i2.5279

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The ASEAN and its dialogue partner countries agreed to reduce trade barriers in the services sector, one of which is sea transport services. The purpose of this study is to estimate the equivalent tax of non-tariff barriers in the sea transport services. Besides that, this study is going to analyze the economic impacts of the regulatory barriers elimination in the sea transport services of ASEAN and its dialogue partner countries. Using the gravity model, it can be identified that trade barriers of sea transport services sector of ASEAN and dialogue partner countries are still relatively high. Additionally, by adopting IC-IRTS model in Global CGE Model (GTAP), the simulation results show consistent results with the theory of pro-competitive effects. The greater gain from trade is obtained in the CGE model assuming IC-IRTS compared to PC-CRTS. China gains a greater benefit that is indicated by the highest increase in welfare and GDP followed by Japan and AustraliaDOI: 10.15408/sjie.v6i2.5279
KEUNGGULAN KOMPETITIF DAN PENAWARAN EKSPOR TUNA INDONESIA DI PASAR INTERNASIONAL MARKET SHARE CONSTANT ANALYSIS Suwarno, Suwarno; Oktaviani, Rina; Siregar, Hermanto; Murniningtyas, Endah
JURNAL EKONOMI DAN KEBIJAKAN PEMBANGUNAN Vol. 1 No. 2 (2012): Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pembangunan
Publisher : IPB University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (850.225 KB) | DOI: 10.29244/jekp.1.2.120-143

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The purposes of this study are to analyze sources of tuna export growth in international market. The analysis methode of this study is Constant Market Share Analyis (CMSA). Based on the result study, Indonesia show an increase in tuna commodity export in international market because of an increase export growth in international market. Indonesia has an increase in competitiveness for frozen tuna, for example yellowfin tuna, skypjack tuna, tuna ness, and for prepared-preserved tuna, for example skypjack tuna. The important factors affecting tuna export supply are gross national product and tuna production. Keywords: tuna,  Constant Market Share Analyis,  competitiveness, export supply.
ANALISIS DAMPAK LIBERALISASI PERDAGANGAN KAWASAN EKONOMI ASIA TERHADAP KINERJA EKONOMI MAKRO ASEAN Zulkarnaen, Ichsan; Oktaviani, Rina; Tambunan, Mangara; Yulius, Yulius
JURNAL EKONOMI DAN KEBIJAKAN PEMBANGUNAN Vol. 1 No. 2 (2012): Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pembangunan
Publisher : IPB University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (616.174 KB) | DOI: 10.29244/jekp.1.2.104-119

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This research intends to explore the impact of trade liberalization on macroeconomic performances, especially on Indonesia and other ASEAN Countries. The GTAP model is used as the main tool of analysis. The findings show that the benefit of the trade liberalization is still dominated by developed countries such as Japan and China. The elimination of import tariff results an increase in economic growth and economic welfare on all participated countries. It also results in an increase in GDP deflator and terms of trade which meant decreasing competitiveness.  Keywords: Asia trade liberalization, ASEAN countries, GTAP model
Kebijakan Otonomi Daerah Dan Dampaknya Terhadap Kinerja Industri Gula Di Kabupaten Pasuruan Fahriyah, Fahriyah; Siregar, Hermanto; Oktaviani, Rina
Agricultural Socio-Economics Journal Vol 10, No 1 (2010)
Publisher : Socio-Economics/Agribusiness Department

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Pada awalnya kebijakan otonomi daerah di Indonesia didasarkan pada UU No 22/1999 dan UU No 25/1999  yang kemudian diamandemen dengan UU No 32/2004 dan UU No 33/2004. Pelaksanaan otonomi daerah akan berdampak baik pada struktur organisasi pemerintah daerah juga pada kewenangan terhadap keuangan/pembelanjaan daerah. Tujuan dari penulisan makalah ini adalah: (1) mengevaluasi perubahan kelembagaan pemerintah daerah dan (2) menganalisis dampak dari peningkatan kewenangan keuangan daerah terhadap kinerja industri gula. Metode analisis  menggunakan model input-output. Dari penelitian ini diperoleh kesimpulan bahwa rendahnya kemampuan aparat pemerintah daerah menyebabkan kebijakan otonomi daerah belum sepenuhnya dapat dilaksanakan. Penerapan otonomi daerah akan berdampak positif terhadap kinerja industri gula jika pemerintah daerah  memberikan dukungan yang besar terhadap aktivitas perdagangan daerah. Kata kunci: Otonomi Daerah, Industri Gula, Kewenangan