Shanty Oktavilia
Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Negeri Semarang

Published : 12 Documents
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Forestry Sector Impact on the Economy of Central Java, Indonesia Firmansyah, Firmansyah; Kurnia, Akhmad Syakir; Oktavilia, Shanty; Prayogi, Ryan
JEJAK: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Vol 12, No 1 (2019): March 2019
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/jejak.v12i1.18575

Abstract

In 2016, the forestry sector produced a Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) of Rp. 3.8 trillion or around 0.45% of the total GRDP of the province of Central Java, Indonesia (BPS Central Java, 2017). The Forestry Sector growth has increased, but the role of the sector shows a downward trend in GRDP. By employing the Input-Output analysis, this study intends to identify the structure of the Central Java forestry sector, through backward and forward linkages and mapping the path of the impact of the forestry sector's economic activities through simulations, toward the economy and sectoral income levels in Central Java. This study finds that the forestry sector is intermediate ouput that is used by other sectors to become their production inputs, so this sector has a good multiplier for the economy.
DETEKSI DINI KRISIS PERBANKAN INDONESIA: IDENTIFIKASI VARIABEL MAKRO DENGAN MODEL LOGIT Oktavilia, Shanty
JEJAK: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Vol 1, No 1 (2008): March 2008
Publisher : Semarang State University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/jejak.v1i1.1448

Abstract

Indonesia suffered from banking crisis for several times. It was the effect of the worst crisis occurredin 1997. Actually, Bath Thailand which plunged into 27,8% at the third quarter of the year 1997 was thebeginning problem that caused Asia currency crisis. This study analyzes the influence of macro indicatoras an early warning system by using logit econometrics model for predicting the possibilities of bankingcrisis that may occur in Indonesia.Kewords: Banking Crisis, macro economic indicator, EWS-logit model
Indonesian Economic Structure: An Analysis of Temporal Leontief Inverse Firmansyah, Firmansyah; Oktavilia, Shanty
Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan: Kajian Masalah Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Vol 16, No 1 (2015): JEP Juni 2015
Publisher : Universitas Muhammdaiyah Surakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the Indonesia economic structure with employing the temporal Leontief inverse which was developed by Sonis and Hewings (1998) on 1975-2005 Indonesia’s input-output tables. In the first stage, this study investigates how the manufacturing industries in driving the Indonesian economy during structural changes. In the second stage, this study examines the structural changes of the manufacturing industries, which can explain the trends in individual industry balance in the context of the economic system. Based on the analysis, this study can trace how each year’s change contributes to the total impact in gross output change.
The International Balance of Payments Role in the Economy of Indonesia Astuti, Ismadiyanti P; Oktavilia, Shanty; Rahman, Agus Rubianto
JEJAK: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Vol 8, No 2 (2015): September 2015
Publisher : Semarang State University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/jejak.v8i2.6169

Abstract

The balance of payments is an indicator of economic fundamentals. Balance of payment describes the ability of a country to gain foreign exchange and foreign payments. This study aimed to analyze the determinants of the balance of payments on the Indonesian economy . It used  Thirlwall and Hussain models and also Duasa empirical model. This study used secondary data years 1987-2014, namely foreign exchange reserves, exports, foreign investment, the exchange rate and the real gross national income. The results showed that the performance of the balance of payments in Indonesia can be explained by the models shown in accordance with the hypothesis, but on several variables did not show a significant correlation.
PENDAMPINGAN PENYUSUNAN ROADMAP PENGEMBANGAN PRODUK UNGGULAN DAERAH KABUPATEN WONOSONO Firmansyah, Firmansyah; Oktavilia, Shanty
Jurnal Abdimas Vol 20, No 2 (2016): Desember 2016
Publisher : Lembaga Penelitian dan Pengabdian Masyarakat (LP2M), Universitas Negeri Semarang

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Abstract

Kabupaten Wonosobo memiliki potensi ekonomi yaitu produk yang dapat dikembangkan menjadi unggulan daerah yang berdaya saing. Untuk menjamin tercapainya sasaran pengembangan produk unggulan daerah, diperlukan peningkatan kapasitas kelembagaan yang mandiri dan tangguh, dan menyusun sistem pengembangan produk unggulan daerah dalam dokumen perencanaan pembangunan daerah. Pendampingan penyusunan roadmap pengembangan produk unggulan di wilayah kabupaten Wonosobo diperlukan untuk menjaga agar proses perencanaan sampai dengan evaluasi pengembangan produk unggulan daerah dapat terap dalam implementasinya. Pendampingan dilakukan kepada personalia kunci di bidang perencanaan pembangunan, kelompok usaha dan aparat pemerintah daerah dalam bentuk pelatihan dan pembimbingan penyusunan roadmap produk unggulan daerah.
The International Balance of Payments Role in the Economy of Indonesia Astuti, Ismadiyanti P; Oktavilia, Shanty; Rahman, Agus Rubianto
JEJAK: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Vol 8, No 2 (2015): September 2015
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/jejak.v8i2.6169

Abstract

The balance of payments is an indicator of economic fundamentals. Balance of payment describes the ability of a country to gain foreign exchange and foreign payments. This study aimed to analyze the determinants of the balance of payments on the Indonesian economy . It used Thirlwall and Hussain models and also Duasa empirical model. This study used secondary data years 1987-2014, namely foreign exchange reserves, exports, foreign investment, the exchange rate and the real gross national income. The results showed that the performance of the balance of payments in Indonesia can be explained by the models shown in accordance with the hypothesis, but on several variables did not show a significant correlation.
DETEKSI DINI KRISIS PERBANKAN INDONESIA: IDENTIFIKASI VARIABEL MAKRO DENGAN MODEL LOGIT Oktavilia, Shanty
JEJAK: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Vol 1, No 1 (2008): March 2008
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/jejak.v1i1.1448

Abstract

Indonesia suffered from banking crisis for several times. It was the effect of the worst crisis occurredin 1997. Actually, Bath Thailand which plunged into 27,8% at the third quarter of the year 1997 was thebeginning problem that caused Asia currency crisis. This study analyzes the influence of macro indicatoras an early warning system by using logit econometrics model for predicting the possibilities of bankingcrisis that may occur in Indonesia.Kewords: Banking Crisis, macro economic indicator, EWS-logit model
The Stock Market and Exchange Rates in Five South Asian Countries Firmansyah, Firmansyah; Oktavilia, Shanty
Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan: Kajian Masalah Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Vol 18, No 1 (2017): JEP 2017
Publisher : Universitas Muhammdaiyah Surakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.23917/jep.v18i1.4293

Abstract

The composite price index and return of stocks are the important indicators, both as a measure of the companys portfolio performance, as well as an indicator of macroeconomic health and the aggregate investment. In addition, the stock prices are also influenced by macroeconomic variables and one of the most important is the exchange rates. The objective of this study is to determine the behavior of exchange rate affects the stock returns in Southeast Asia, pre and post of the 2008 world financial crisis. By employing the daily stock market return in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Singapore more than seventeen years from 1 September 1999 to 31 March 2017, this study utilizes Engle-Granger error correction model and cointegration approach to investigate and compare the long and short run of the structural effect of the exchange rates on stock returns. To differentiate the behavior of variables between pre and post occurrence of 2008 world financial crisis, the estimation of the model is divided into two periods. This study finds that the exchange rate growth influence the stock returns in the long and short run, and proves that the cointegration between the two variables exist in all countries. The study has the implication that the exchange rate, which the one of the fundamental measures of a countrys macroeconomic health, is an important determinant of influencing stock return, even its effects are responded by the stock return in one day.
Indonesian Economic Structure: An Analysis of Temporal Leontief Inverse Firmansyah, Firmansyah; Oktavilia, Shanty
Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan: Kajian Masalah Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Vol 16, No 1 (2015): JEP Juni 2015
Publisher : Universitas Muhammdaiyah Surakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.23917/jep.v16i1.933

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the Indonesia economic structure with employing the temporal Leontief inverse which was developed by Sonis and Hewings (1998) on 1975-2005 Indonesia’s input-output tables. In the first stage, this study investigates how the manufacturing industries in driving the Indonesian economy during structural changes. In the second stage, this study examines the structural changes of the manufacturing industries, which can explain the trends in individual industry balance in the context of the economic system. Based on the analysis, this study can trace how each year’s change contributes to the total impact in gross output change.
Export Performance and Competitiveness of Indonesian Food Commodities Firmansyah, Firmansyah; Widodo, Wahyu; Karsinah, Karsinah; Oktavilia, Shanty
JEJAK: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Vol 10, No 2 (2017): September 2017
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/jejak.v10i2.11294

Abstract

The developments of the world trade requires the improvement of the competitiveness of products, including agricultural commodities. At the regional level, Indonesias agricultural commodities face the ASEAN free market competition. This study aims to identify and examine the competitiveness of Indonesian exports of several agricultural commodities in the international market by employing the index of competitiveness of trade specialization by trade specialization index (TSI), and the index of market penetration, by revealed comparative advantage (RCA). This study observed the HS 4 digit agricultural commodities, along 2011-2015. The study finds that the index of commodity trade specialization of estate crops sub-sector is in a stage of maturation of the world trade, or it has a very strong competitiveness. The food crops sub-sector stand on the introduction stage of the world trade or it has low competitiveness, or in other words, Indonesia is a net importer of the sector commodities. Although some of commodities have the strong competitiveness, but on the other hand, they do not have a strong comparative advantage. This is shown by the RCA value that less than 1. It means that a part of agricultural commodities, namely food crops, horticulture and estate, are still import oriented.The developments of the world trade requires the improvement of the competitiveness of products, including agricultural commodities. At the regional level, Indonesias agricultural commodities face the ASEAN free market competition. This study aims to identify and examine the competitiveness of Indonesian exports of several agricultural commodities in the international market by employing the index of competitiveness of trade specialization by trade specialization index (TSI), and the index of market penetration, by revealed comparative advantage (RCA). This study observed the HS 4 digit agricultural commodities, along 2011-2015. The study finds that the index of commodity trade specialization of estate crops sub-sector is in a stage of maturation of the world trade, or it has a very strong competitiveness. The food crops sub-sector stand on the introduction stage of the world trade or it has low competitiveness, or in other words, Indonesia is a net importer of the sector commodities. Although some of commodities have the strong competitiveness, but on the other hand, they do not have a strong comparative advantage. This is shown by the RCA value that less than 1. It means that a part of agricultural commodities, namely food crops, horticulture and estate, are still import oriented.