Articles

INDEKS HARGA SAHAM GABUNGAN (IHSG) MERUPAKAN SALAH SATU INDIKATOR YANG DIGUNAKAN PEMERINTAH DALAM MENGAMBIL KEBIJAKAN DALAM BIDANG EKONOMI. SELAIN ITU PEMERINTAH MENGANGGAP PENTINGNYA PASAR MODAL SEBAGAI ALTERNATIF PEMBIAYAAN SELAIN PERBANKAN. FLUKTUASI YANG SANGAT BESAR TERJADI DI PASAR BURSA, KARENA SETIAP TRANSAKSI TERCATAT DENGAN SKALA WAKTU YANG KECIL SEHINGGA PERUBAHAN NILAI YANG TERJADI BEGITU CEPAT. PADA KASUS INI ASUMSI KEHOMOGENAN RAGAM TIDAK TERPENUHI. PADA PASAR BURSA JUGA MEMPERLIHA Untari, Nirawita; Mattjik, Ahmad Ansori; Saefuddin, Asep
FORUM STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI Vol. 14 No. 1 (2009)
Publisher : FORUM STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) merupakan salah satu indikator yang digunakan pemerintah dalam mengambil kebijakan dalam bidang ekonomi. Selain itu pemerintah menganggap pentingnya pasar modal sebagai alternatif pembiayaan selain perbankan. Fluktuasi yang sangat besar terjadi di pasar bursa, karena setiap transaksi tercatat dengan skala waktu yang kecil sehingga perubahan nilai yang terjadi begitu cepat. Pada kasus ini asumsi kehomogenan ragam tidak terpenuhi. Pada pasar bursa juga memperlihatkan adanya pengaruh asimetrik(leverage), yaitu hubungan yang negatif antara perubahan nilai return dengan pergerakan volatilitasnya. Model EGARCH yang memodelkan ragam bersyarat sebagai fungsi log-linear digunakan sebagai fungsi ragam dalam memodelkan nilai harian IHSG, sehingga nilai ragam bersyarat yang diprediksi tidak akan pernah negatif. Model EGARCH terpilih adalah MA(1)-EGARCH(1,1). Model EGARCH terbukti sangat baik dalam memodelkan nilai harian IHSG, tetapi belum cukup baik untuk meramalkan nilai IHSG yang akan datang. Selain ramalan terhadap nilai harian IHSG, pemodelan fungsi ragam juga menghasilkan peramalan terhadap ragam bersyaratnya. Ramalan ragam bersyarat sangat berguna bagi pemegang aset dalam melihat perilaku pergerakan IHSG dan untuk menghitung besarnya resiko memegang suatu aset di masa yang akan datang.
PENERAPAN METODE MIVQUE DALAM PENDUGAAN SIFAT GENETIK PADA PRODUKSI SUSU SAPI Saefuddin, Asep; Kurnia, Anang; Jaya, Citra
FORUM STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI Vol. 8 No. 2 (2003)
Publisher : FORUM STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

Ada beberapa ha1 yang mempengaruhi keragaman produksi susu sapi. Secara garis besar,dapat dibagi ke kd'am dua kelompok yaitu faktor genetik dun faktor lingkungan. Keragamangenetik yang tinggi pada produksi susu. sari mcnunjukkan lingkungan tidak terlalu berpei~garuhterhadak produksi. Dalam dunia nyata, keragaman yang sebenarnya tidak mungkin diketahui,sehingga diprlukan pendekatan metode statistika dalam pendugaannya. Analisis statistika yangsering dipergunakan dalam menganalisis hubungan antar fakfor respon dengan faktorpenjelasnya adalah analisis model linier. Akan tetapi, analisis ini dibatasi asumsi bahwa faktorfaktoryang terlibat bersifat tetap (fixed), sehingga diperlukan pendekatan lain jika melibatkanfaktor yang bersifat acak. Analisis linear mixed model rnenyediakan fasilitas untuk menganalisisfaktor tetap maupun acak, dengan fokus utamanya adalah mengenai ragam komponen acak. Hasilpenelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa satu-satunya faktor tetap yang nyata pada taraf 0.05 ada;ahfaktor laktasi. Struktur koragam yang paling baik memodelkan faktor acak berdasarkan nilai AICadalah Unstructured Covariance. Sedangkan untuk pendugaan keragaman genetik, jenis Varlourmenjadi jenis pejantan yang paling superior dilihat dari nilai harapan kemajuan genetik dunkontribusinya terhadap keragaman produksi susu anaknya.Kata kunci : Sifat genetik, Linear Mixed Model
PENDEKATAN NONPARAMETRIK UNTUK ANALISIS TREND PADA RESPONS BINER Hajarisman, Nusar; Saefuddin, Asep
FORUM STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI Vol. 11 No. 1 (2006)
Publisher : FORUM STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

Pada saat penelitian lebih difokuskan pada proporsi dari banyaknya ?sukses?, pi = Yi/Ni, maka analisis seringkali dilakukan berdasarkan model sampling untuk proporsi:distribusi binomial. Distribusi statistik sederhana seperti binomial kadang-kadang tidak mampu untuk menggambarkan distribusi sampling dari Yi atau pi. Dengan demikian, untuk setiap analisis berdasarkan pada penaksiran parameter dari model binomial (yaitu metode parametrik binomial) akan membawa pada kekeliruan dalam inferensi mengenai efek dari suatu stimulus yang sedang diamati. Dalam makalah ini akan dibahas mengenai suatu alternatif dari model parametrik untuk pi, yaitu dengan menggunakanmetode bebas-distribusi (nonparametrik). Dua buah metode berdasarkan pendekatan nonparametrik untuk keperluan analisis trend yang akan dibahas dalam makalah ini ujiCochran-Armitage dan uji Permutasi.
OPTIMALISASI PEMANFAATAN LAHAN KEHUTANAN DALAM RANGKA PENINGKATAN KUALITAS LINGKUNGAN DAN KESEJAHTERAAN SOSIAL EKONOMI MASYARAKAT DESA SEKITAR HUTAN: STUDI KASUS DI KABUPATEN SUMEDANG (THE OPTIMIZATION OF FOREST LAND UTILIZATION TO IMPROVE ENVIRONMENT Q Rajati, Tati; Kusmana, Cecep; Darusman, Dudung; Saefuddin, Asep
Jurnal Manajemen Hutan Tropika Vol. 12 No. 1 (2006)
Publisher : Institut Pertanian Bogor (IPB University)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (337.925 KB) | DOI: 10.7226/jtfm.12.1.%p

Abstract

To reserve forest land and improve people income, Perum Perhutani Sumedang regency together with people surrounding forest, makes a program to utilize the forest by using agroforestry system. For that reason, researcher is interested in doing a research about the type of crops that can optimize forest land. The objective of the research is to analyze about the utilization of forest land optimally and improve social welfare of the people surrounding the forest in Cipadayungan,Sumedang. The result of the research indicates that the degree of erosion in the research field at the slope of (0-
THE INFLUENCE OF FAMILY STRENGTH ON THE QUALITY OF PREGNANCY Sunarti, Euis; Syarief, Hidayat; ., Hardinsyah; Megawangi, Ratna; Saefuddin, Asep; ., Husaini
Media Gizi dan Keluarga Vol. 27 No. 1 (2003): Media Gizi dan Keluarga
Publisher : Media Gizi dan Keluarga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (1027.245 KB)

Abstract

The Objectives of this study were to anaylize the influence of family strength on pregnancy quality. The data were analyzed from the study of "Effect of multinutrient fortified food suplement on pregnancy outcomes", which had been done previously by the Departement of Community Nutrition and Family Resources of IPB. Some additional information on family strength was also collected retrospectively. Of the 615 pregnant mothers in Luwiliang district (19 villages) and Cibungbulang district (15 villages), 233 mothers met the sample criterias were selected Pregnancy quality was measured by pregnancy weight gain. Family strength data (q=0.7) consisted of informations on physical resources, non-physical resources. Family problems, capping mechanism, physical well-being, social well-being, and psychologycal well-being. Applying a multiple linear regression model, body weight at the beginning of pregnancy and family strength has a significant effect on pregnancy weight gain. The items of Family strength are health factor, family goal, free from anger, and social support. The above results implied that, increasing family strength should he the important factor in pregnancy quality.
INDUKSI MUTASI PADA STEK PUCUK ANYELIR (DIANTHUS CARYOPHYLLUS LINN.) MELALUI IRADIASI SINAR GAMMA Aisyah, Syarifah Iis; Aswidinnoor, Hajrial; Saefuddin, Asep; Marwoto, Budi; Sastrosumarjo, Sarsidi
Jurnal Agronomi Indonesia (Indonesian Journal of Agronomy) Vol. 37 No. 1 (2009): Jurnal Agronomi Indonesia
Publisher : Indonesia Society of Agronomy (PERAGI) and Department of Agronomy and Horticulture, Faculty of Agriculture, IPB University, Bogor, Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (620.001 KB) | DOI: 10.24831/jai.v37i1.1396

Abstract

It has been a common knowledge that LD50 is commonly used in estimating optimal doses of gamma irradiation in a breeding program. This research was aimed at observing radiosensitivity of five carnation's genotypes to gamma irradiation, to find the LD50 of carnation's cuttings, and to obtain solid mutants from five numbers of Carnation.  For cuttings, carnation genotype number 10.8 was the most insensitive to gamma rays, whereas number 24.15 was the most sensitive one.  LD50 of carnation's cuttings were obtained around 49 -72 gray. There were 19 mutants produced from this treatment. The desired mutans were mostly produced from the treated 24.1 genotype whereas the character mutans were mostly observed in MV2 generation. Irradiation treatment on genotype 24.1 produced most stabile mutans while the less was in genotype 24.14.  The produced mutants were qualitatively different in colour and petal shape, and stabile till third generation.   Key words: LD50, gamma irradiation, induced mutation, carnation.
PENAKSIRAN DAN PENGUJIAN MODEL REGRESI BETA-LOGISTIK HECKMAN-WILLIS Hajarisman, Nusar; Saefuddin, Asep
FORUM STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI Vol. 6 No. 2 (2001)
Publisher : FORUM STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

Methods are presented for modeling dose-related effects in proportion data when extra-binomial variability is a concern. Motivation is taken from experiments in developmental toxicology, where the observed proportions. Appeal is made to the well-known beta-binomial distribution to represent the overdispersion. From this, an exponential function of the linear predictor is used to model the dose-response relationship. The spesification was introduced previously for econometric applications by Heckman and Willis; it induces a form logistic regression for mean response, together with a reciprocal biexponential model for the intralitter correlation. For large sample, likelihood based methods for estimating and testing the joint proportion-correlation response are studied.Keywords: logistic regression, beta-binomial distributin, biexponential model
EPIDEMIOLOGI HAWAR DAUN BIBIT PINUS MERKUSII YANG DISEBABKAN OLEH PESTALOTIA THEAE (EPIDEMIOLOGY OF NEEDLE BLIGHT ON PINUS MERKUSII SEEDLINGS INCITED BY PESTALOTIA THEAE) ., Sutarman; Hadi, Soetrisno; Saefuddin, Asep; ., Achmad; Suryani, Ani
Jurnal Manajemen Hutan Tropika Vol. 10 No. 1 (2004)
Publisher : Institut Pertanian Bogor (IPB University)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (183.474 KB)

Abstract

The objectives of the study are as follows: to know the interrelationships between the weather components as well as Pestalotia theae's aerial conidiospore population and the development of needle blight on Pinus merkusii seedlings, and to determine the effect of nursery site on the early development of the disease. Two week's average without interval model is the most reliable model to be used for determining the interrelationship between the development of the disease severity and the weather components. Light duration, rain fall, relative humidity and temperature are the weather components significantly affect the increase of the disease severity. The nursery in Pongpoklandak, Cianjur (26,5 - 30,5 oC; RH: 92-98 %), West Java, is the most optimal location for the development of the disease. To maintain the Disease Index at the most about 25 on seedlings over 6 months old, is the key factor for the successful management of needle blight on P. merkusii seedlings in the nursery.Keyword: Pinus merkusii, Pestalotia theae, epidemi, Indeks Penyakit
PREDIKSI EROSI DAN SEDIMENTASI DI SUB DAERAH ALIRAN SUNGAI KEDUANG KABUPATEN WONOGIRI Sutrisno, Joko; Sanim, Bunasor; Saefuddin, Asep; Sitorus, Santun R.P.
Media Konservasi Vol 16 No 2 (2011): Media Konservasi Vol. 16 Nomor 2, Agustus 2011
Publisher : Deparement of Forest Resources Conservation and Ecotourism - Bogor Agricultural University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (491.741 KB) | DOI: 10.29244/medkon.16.2.%p

Abstract

Land resources management at Keduang Sub-Watershed will be influence of environment quality, physic (erosion, sedimentation, debit of Keduang River), chemistry (water quality) and socio economic aspect. This research aim to know the level of erosion and sedimentation that happened in Keduang Sub-Watershed, Wonogiri Regency. Research method which is used is descriptive. Data types which are obtained are secondary data from Centre of Research and Development Technology of Watershed Management, Forestry Department, BPS-Statistic of Wonogiri Regency and Agriculture Department of Wonogiri Regency. Method of  analysis?s data which is used in this research is Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) Method to predict the soil erosion. Results of this research are: the level of erosion in Keduang Sub-Watershed is 44 ton/ha/year or 1,9 million ton/year. The sediment yield from Keduang Sub-Watershed to Wonogiri Basin equal 164.000 ton/year. Keywords : land resources management, erosion, sedimentation, USLE.
MODELING OF DENGUE HEMORRHAGIC FEVER IN BOGOR USING BAYESIAN SUR-SAR Anggana, Hilman Dwi; Saefuddin, Asep; Sartono, Bagus
FORUM STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI Vol. 20 No. 2 (2015)
Publisher : FORUM STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (454.021 KB)

Abstract

The purposes of this research are (1) To develop Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) system constructed by correlated Spatial Autoregressive Model (SAR) with Bayesian approach for dynamic analysis of spatial and non-spatial contributions of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) case in Bogor, (2) To evaluate efficiency issues on parameters estimation with SUR system. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling scheme was used to estimate all of model parameters with the number of iteration whose burn-in period was discovered. The results indicated that : there was the similar pattern of DHF spread in Bogor during 2009 ? 2011, the nearby areas had a significant role to the incidence of DHF in an area in the city of Bogor, and the non-spatial contributions of DHF cases in Bogor during 2009 -2011 included in this model were dynamic. Gain efficiency of parameters estimation on modeling of DHF in Bogor with SAR for each year during 2009-2011 can be obtained if we construct all of SAR with SUR system model.
Co-Authors . Marzuki . Sutriyati ACHMAD . Ahmad A. Mattjik Ahmad Ansori Mattjik Aji Hamim Wigena Alinda FM Zain Ananda, Frisca Rizki Anang Kurnia Anggana, Hilman Dwi Ani Suryani Anik Djuraidah Arief Daryanto Arman Arman Bagus Sartono Bambang Indriyanto, Bambang Basita Ginting Budi Marwoto Bunasor Sanim Cece Sumantri CECEP KUSMANA Chalid Talib Citra Jaya Daowen Zhang Dewi Juliah Ratnaningsih Dewi, Lia Ratih Kusuma Diah Krisnatuti Dian Handayani Dian Kusumaningrum Dian Kusumaningrum, Dudung Darusman Eka Intan Kumala Putri Enny Kristiani Etih Sudarnika Etty Riani Euis Sunarti HAJRIAL ASWIDINNOOR Harahap, Tagor Alamsyah Hardiansyah . Hardinsyah . Hardinsyah Hardinsyah Hari Wijayanto Hartoyo, harry Hendra Prasetya Herlina, Marizsa HERMANTO SIREGAR Hidayat Syarief Husaini . I Made Sumertajaya I Wayan Mangku Jajang Jajang Jodi Vanden Eng Joko Sutrisno Kristiani, Enny Lia Budimulyati Salman, Lia Budimulyati Lilik Noor Yuliati MANGARA TAMBUNAN Margono Slamet Marliati . Marliati Marliati MIRNAWATI SUDARWANTO Muhammad Nur Aidi Muladno . Ninuk Purnaningsih Nirawita Untari Nunung Nuryartono Nuramaliyah, Nuramaliyah Nurul Hidayati Nusar Hajarisman Pang S. Asngari Pien Budiyanto, Pien Prabowo Tjitropranoto Pradina, Fathia Anggriani Priyadi Kardono Purmalino, Andres Purnomohadi, Eri Putri, Sarah R. Ruswandi Ratna Megawangi Rimun Wibowo, Rimun Rita Kusriastuti Rizka Rahmaida Ronny Rachman Noor S. Damanhur, Didin Santun R.P. Sitorus Sarsidi Sastrosumarjo Setiadi Djohar Setiawan Setiawan Siti Sundari Sjafri Mangkuprawira Soedijanto Padmowihardjo Soekirman Soekirman Soetrisno Hadi Sony Sunaryo Suhartono, Doni Sulaiman, Fatah Sumardjo . Sumardjo Sumardjo Sumarjo Gatot Irianto, Sumarjo Gatot Sumartono Sumartono Sutarman . Syafri Mangkuprawira Syarifah Iis Aisyah Tamonob, Arista Marlince Tati Rajati triguna, gunadi Ujang Sumarwan Umi Cahyaningsih Upik Kesumawati Hadi William A. Hawley Yani Nurhadryani Yenni Angraini Yulita, Tiyas Yuni Ros Bangun Yusuf, Eva Z Zinggara hidayat