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Found 2 Documents
Journal : JUTI: Jurnal Ilmiah Teknologi Informasi

JUTI: Jurnal Ilmiah Teknologi Informasi Vol 7, No 4, Juli 2009
Publisher : Teknik Informatika, ITS Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12962/j24068535.v7i4.a88


Neural network (NN) is one of many method used to predict the electricity consumption per hour in many countries. NN method which is used in many previous studies is Feed-Forward Neural Network (FFNN) or Autoregressive Neural Network(AR-NN). AR-NN model is not able to capture and explain the effect of moving average (MA) order on a time series of data. This research was conducted with the purpose of reviewing the application of other types of NN, that is Elman-Recurrent Neural Network (Elman-RNN) which could explain MA order effect and compare the result of prediction accuracy with multiple seasonal ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) models. As a case study, we used data electricity consumption per hour in Mengare Gresik. Result of analysis showed that the best of double seasonal Arima models suited to short-term forecasting in the case study data is ARIMA([1,2,3,4,6,7,9,10,14,21,33],1,8)(0,1,1)24 (1,1,0)168. This model produces a white noise residuals, but it does not have a normal distribution due to suspected outlier. Outlier detection in iterative produce 14 innovation outliers. There are 4 inputs of Elman-RNN network that were examined and tested for forecasting the data, the input according to lag Arima, input such as lag Arima plus 14 dummy outlier, inputs are the lag-multiples of 24 up to lag 480, and the inputs are lag 1 and lag multiples of 24+1. All of four network uses one hidden layer with tangent sigmoid activation function and one output with a linear function. The result of comparative forecast accuracy through value of MAPE out-sample showed that the fourth networks, namely Elman-RNN (22, 3, 1), is the best model for forecasting electricity consumption per hour in short term in Mengare Gresik.
JUTI: Jurnal Ilmiah Teknologi Informasi Vol 7, No 3, Januari 2009
Publisher : Teknik Informatika, ITS Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12962/j24068535.v7i3.a76


The purpose of this paper is to provide the results of Arima modeling and outlier detection in the rainfall data in Surabaya. This paper explained about the steps in the formation of rainfall models, especially Box-Jenkins procedure for Arima modeling and outlier detection. Early stages of modeling stasioneritas Arima is the identification of data, both in mean and variance. Stasioneritas evaluation data in the variance can be done with Box-Cox transformation. Meanwhile, in the mean stasioneritas can be done with the plot data and forms of ACF. Identification of ACF and PACF of the stationary data is used to determine the order of allegations Arima model. The next stage is to estimate the parameters and diagnostic checks to see the suitability model. Process diagnostics check conducted to evaluate whether the residual model is eligible berdistribusi white noise and normal. Ljung-Box Test is a test that can be used to validate the white noise condition, while the Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test is an evaluation test for normal distribution. Residual normality test results showed that the residual model of Arima not white noise, and indicates the existence of outlier in the data. Thus, the next step taken is outlier detection to eliminate outlier effects and increase the accuracy of predictions of the model Arima. Arima modeling implementation and outlier detection is done by using MINITAB package and MATLAB. The research shows that the modeling Arima and outlier detection can reduce the prediction error as measured by the criteria Mean Square Error (MSE). Quantitatively, the decline in the value of MSE by incorporating outlier detection is 23.7%, with an average decline 6.5%.
Co-Authors A J Endharta A. Haris A. Rusgiyono Abdul Hamid Abdul Haris Abdul Karim Achmad Mauludiyanto Adi Soeprijanto Aditia, Dita Selvia Ag Soemantri Agus Setyawan Agus Subagio Agus Suwandono Agustinus Soemantri Ahmad Arsyadmunir, Ahmad AHMAD MUNIR Ahmad Sulaeman Aiman Farag Mohammed Ali, Aiman Farag Mohammed Aisiah Aisiah, Aisiah Aji Winara Aji, Mahendra Puji Permana Akhmad Fathurrohman al azizi, aulia Albertus Ata Maran Ali Rosidi Alice Ximenis Naben Alif Rahman Dhani Alim, Kusuma Yati Amalia Sakina, Nova Ana Setyowati Anggraeni, Ika Esti Anggun Marlina Puspitasari, Anggun Marlina Ani Margawati Anies Anies Anna Nur Nahari, Anna Nur Apoina Kartini Apryanti, Yohana Putri Ardiani, Hanifah Ari Dwi Kurniawati, Ari Dwi Ari Suwondo Arif Harjanto Arifian Rahman Arimoto, Takafumi Aris Puji Widodo Aris Sudomo, Aris Armini, Ni Kadek Arnelli Arnelli Arono Arono Artikasari, Artikasari Arulita Ika Fibriana Arum Siwiendrayanti Arum, Silfia Sekar Ary Widiyanto Aryanti, Yulia Ashanur Jenni, Ashanur Asril Aminullah Astari, Karina Ayu Cintya Paraswati, Ayu Cintya B. Raharjo Bagoes Widjanarko Bahati, Rahayuni Basuki Basuki Bayu Surarso Beni Lestari, Beni Beta Noranita Boediman, Drajat Boediman, Drajat Bon, Abdul Talib Bin Brodjol Sutijo BRW. Indriasari, BRW. Budhi Setianto budi manfaat, budi Budi Santosa Budi Setiawan Budianto, Anwar Budiyono Budiyono Cahya Rosyida, Desta Ayu Castro, Toto Castro, Toto Chamdani, Muhammad Chandra, Annisa Christian Lilik Henry, Christian Lilik Corry Wahyuni Hidayat, Corry Wahyuni Cut Nanda Defira, Cut Nanda Cut Yulvizar D. Ispriyanti Dana, I Made Gde Meranggi Dana, I Made Gde Meranggi Darmayanti, Tri Darmayanti, Tri Darsono Darsono Darwis, Darsef Dasrul Dasrul Dedi Dedi Dedi Hariyanto, Dedi Dedi Natawijaya Dedy Dwi Prastyo Deny Yudi Fitranti Devi Valeriani Dewanti, Nikie Dewi Andriyani Dharminto Dharminto Dhoriva Urwatul Wutsqa Diah Rahayu Wulandari Diah Ratnasari Dian Rahmawati Dias Aji Bantarwati Didik Setiyo Widodo Dina Tania Dinda Rachma Anggiani, Dinda Rachma Diyah Fatmasari Djalal Er Riyanto Djokomoeljanto, Sri Dwi Astuti, Siti Choirul Dwi Kusrianto Putro, Dwi Kusrianto Dwi Marinajati Dwi Novitasari Dwi Pudjonarko Dwi Wastoro Dadiyanto, Dwi Wastoro Dyah, Dyah E. Setiawati Edy Suryadi Eijsvogels, Thijs Eka Sudarsana Eko Adi Sarwoko Eko Eko Sediyono Eko Sediono Eko Sediyono Endang Ambarwati, Endang Endang Pujiastuti, Rr Sri Eni Mahawati Enny Dwi Lestariningsih, Enny Dwi Epa Suryanto Erdawati Erdawati, Erdawati Erlin Fitria Dewi, Erlin Fitria Erna Setiawati, Erna Esty Kurniasih, Esty Esty Yunita Sari, Esty Etik Susanti, Etik F. Ariyanto Fachrul Kurniawan Faisal, Muh Falah, Nurul Fanoeel Thamrin Fany Aditya Rahman Farikhin Farikhin Faturohman, Akhmad Fauziah, Syifa Fauziyyah, Rizqiana Fernando, Okta Fidiyatun Fidiyatun Firdaus, Ismi Zahrotul Firdaus, Zulfia Fitria Agustina Fitriani, Ella Frayudha, Angga Debby Gamantyo Hendrantoro Gasela, Fitria Gautama, Mada Ghassani, Fildzah Gumono Gumono, Gumono Gunawan Gunawan H. Sutanto Hadinata, Erlangga Hajar, Muhammad Abduh Ibnu Hamidah, Tasya Hanafi Kamarz Hanan Lanang Dangiran, Hanan Lanang Handini, Yuslinda Dwi Hapsari, Ratih Indri Hardhono Susanto Hari Ismanto Hartanti Hartanti, Hartanti Hartuti Purnaweni Haryanto Haryanto Hasanah, Zahrotun Hayati, Amalia Mustika Helmi Arif Wibawa Helmie Arif Wibawa Hendra Budi Sungkawa, Hendra Budi Henry Setyawan, Henry Herdina, Sela Putri Heri Kuswanto Heri Nugroho Heri Susanto Heriyadi, Nur Widi Astanto Agus Tri Herni Utami Hertanto Wahyu Subagio Heru Tjahjana Hery Setiawan, Hery Hery Setiyawan Hiasa, Fina Hidayat, Syarief Thaufik I Made Sudiana I Made Widagda, I Made I. Marhaendrajaya Ibrahim, Mochammad Malik Ida Ariyanti, Ida Ika Nur Jannah, Ika Nur Ikawati, Kartika Ike Ani Windiastuti Ikrar Hanggara, Ikrar Ilafi Andalita Ilmiyah, Nita Imaduddin, Dani Imam Djamaluddin Mashoedi Imam Husni Al Amin Imam Suyanto Imelsa Ika Wulandari, Imelsa Ika Imran, Bahtiar INDARTI, TITIK Indi, Endah Rinsania Indramawan, Anik Iqbalsyah, T.M. Iqlima Safitri, Iqlima Irma Dewiyanti Irmawati Irmawati Iskandar, Arif Ismaini Ismaini Isnawati, Salafiyah Izza Hananingtyas J. E. Suseno Jamaludin Jamaludin James Khristian Imbiri Jamilah Jamilah Jatmiko Endro Suseno JC. Susanto Joharman Joharman Juliana, Cut Juwana, Ferditia Karna Kamilah Budhi Kamilah Budhi R, Kamilah Budhi Karimizzah, Diyani Ayu Kartika Chrysti Suryandari Kartika Imam Santoso, Kartika KARTINI ERIANI Karyadi, Hari Khasanah, Wahyu Khoiriyah Khoiriyah Khoirul Huda Khoirunnisa, Anis Khotimah, Khusnul Kiki Ferawati Kintan Arifa Shafirin, Kintan Arifa Kiswanto Kiswanto Komsiyah, Komsiyah Kurniawati, Yasinta Dian Kushartantya Kushartantya Kusmiyati Tjahjono Kuswandari, Diah Kuswaningrum, Okta Kuswati Kuswati Kusyogo Cahyo Laila Kamilla Laila, Ratih Larasati, Yuniar Widya Laraswati, Iranada Lee, Muhammad Hisyam Lenni Arta F.S. Sinaga, Lenni Arta F.S. Lentho, Jessie Novriani Lestari, Susanti Lily Gunawan Lince Bulutoding, Lince Lokaprasida, Prameshi Lopulalan Octovianus, Lopulalan Lukman Hakim Lukmono, Djoko Tri Hadi M ROMLI, M M. Arifin M. Haris Qamaruzzaman M. Izzati M. Nur M. Zen Rahfiludin Ma'arif, Muhammad Imam Mado, Ismit Mahalul Azam Mardiyono Mardiyono Maria Mexitalia Martha Irene Kartasurya Martini Martini Marwanto, Andriana Masfufatun Juni, Masfufatun Maskinah, Eni Mateus Sakundarno Adi, Mateus Sakundarno Mateus Sakundarno, Mateus Maulidah, Nashri Maulidiyah Salim Mauridhi Hery P Melawati, Cyntia Meliana Sari, Meliana Metusala, Destario Mexitalia Setiawati Mifbakhuddin Mifbakhuddin, Mifbakhuddin Miftahul Munir, Miftahul Mindhayani, Iva Mintowati, Mintowati Mochammad Abdul Mukid, Mochammad Abdul Mochammad Arbi Hadiyat Mohammad Sulchan Mohammad Zen Rahfiludin Monitasari, Diah Mubarok, Muhammad Sulthan Muchlis Achsan Udji Sofro Muchtar Mawardi Mufidatul Khasanah, Mufidatul Muhammad Nur MUHAMMAD RIZAL Muntoha Muntoha Murifal, Badar Murni, Ni Nengah Arini Mursid Rahardjo Musbir Musbir Muslih Muslih Mustafid Mustafid Mustafidah, Luthfiyatul Mustofa, Siti Maisaroh Mutmainna, Mutiara Mutmainnah Mutmainnah Nafngiyana, Ulin Narapadia, Febri Ngadiyono Ngadiyono, Ngadiyono Ngatman, Ngatman Ni Luh Sakinah Nuraini, Ni Luh Sakinah Niki Astorina Yunita Dewanti, Niki Astorina Yunita Nikie Astorina Yunita Dewanti Nimah, Anis Nikmatun Novi Hidayati Novia Rina Dewi Novianti, P.W. Nugroho Nugroho Nur Azizah, Eka Putri Nur Endah Wahyuningsih Nur Endah Wahyuningsih Nur Fadhilah Nur Faizah Nur Khafidhoh, Nur Nurdin Bahtiar Nuretza, Juwita Ayang Nurhalimah, Septina Restu Nurjazuli Nurjazuli Nurjazuli Nurjazulil, Nurjazuli Nurmala, Esti Nyoman Suci Widyastiti Ofianto Ofianto, Ofianto Oktariza, Minanda Olha Musa, Olha Onny Setiani Palupi, Bening Sri Pamuji, Siti Erniyati Berkah Pandiangan, Paken Paristiowati, Maria Parmin, J. Parmitasari, Rika Dwi Ayu Pasiyan Rahmatullah Patma, Rosi Patta, Abd Rahman Patta, Abd. Rahman Pradita, Ekky Resha Prakoso, Aryo Pramukarso, Dodik Tugasworo Pratami, Azmi Zakiyya Prihati Prihati Priyo Sidik Sasongko Priyono Priyono Pujiono Pujiono Purhadi Purhadi Purnomo Sidhi Purwa, Taly Purwadi, Agus Joko Puspita, Intan Dewi Putra, Tatag Kurnia Putri Setyo Wulandari, Putri Setyo Putri, Nurbiah Saheba R. Djoko Nugroho, R. Djoko R. Hariyati R. Hastuti Rachmawati, Latifa Rahmadani, Ayu Ramadhani, Achmad Rani Novianis Rizky Saputri, Rani Novianis Rizky Rara Marisdayana, Rara Rasipin Rasipin Ratna Dian Kurniawati, Ratna Dian Ratna Hidayah, Ratna Ratnasari Kusumawati Rebecha Prananta, Rebecha Renny Elfira Wulansari Rianasari Rianasari, Rianasari Riandi, Masfa'if Rifatul Masrikhiyah, Rifatul Rio Kurniawan Ririn Sulpiani Risa Nursanty Rismawati Rismawati Riwayatiningsih, Rika Riyandika Andhi Saputra Riyaningsih Riyaningsih Roesipin, Sri Wahyuningsih Rofi'i, Muhamad Rokhmaniyah Rokhmaniyah, Rokhmaniyah Ronny Ronny Rosnizar, Rosnizar Roziana Roziana, Roziana RRJ. Sri Djokomoeljanto Rudi Anshari, Rudi Rudi Pangarsaning Utami Rukmanah, Rukmanah Rusiyati Rusiyati Ryana Ayu Setia Kurniasari S. Tana sabil sabil, sabil Saepudin, Malik Safira Fatichaturrachma, Safira Safitri, Nurul Febi Safitri, Tria Mugi Safriansyah Safriansyah Sah, Suciati Sah, Suciati Salehah, Novi Ajeng Salimi, Moh Salimi, Moh Samekto, Marek Samiyati, Menik Samsul N Hidayat, Samsul N Samuel Samuel Sandhi, Dwi Pungky Ari Sandra, Tuti Sandra, Tuti Santi Puteri Rahayu Santoso, Rame Santoso, Yusuf Dwi Sapruddin Sapruddin Sari, Betania Ratna Sari, Nisa Sarwendah Dewi Astuti, Sarwendah Dewi Satria Gunawan Zain, Satria Gunawan Satriyo Adhy Selamat Budijitno Seno, Heri Nugroho Hario Setiawan, Anton Setyarsih, Liani Shofa Chasani Sholichah, Amaliyah Mutiatus Sholihati, Nina Siti Fatimah Siti Fatimah Muis Siti Maghfirotun Amin Siti Zaenab Slamet Budiono Slamet Handoko Slamet Handoko Handoko Slamet Widodo Soeharyo Hadisaputro Soewardini, Herfa Maulina Dewi Sofia Sofia, Sofia Sofro, Muchlis AU Sofro, Muchlis AU Sofyan Cholid, Sofyan Soleh Mulyana Solihati, Euis Novi Sri Handayani Sri Mulyaningsih Sri Rahayu Sri Ratna Rahayu, Sri Ratna Sri Sumiyati Sri Wahjuni Sri Wahyuni Sri Wahyuningsih Sri Winarni Sriharyani, Leni Subagio, Hertanto W. Subagio, Hertanto W. Subanar Subanar Subiharto Subiharto Suci Rahmadani Sucipta Sucipta Sudarno Sudarno Sudarto, Yoharwan Dwi Sudirman Sudirman Sugeng Purnomo Sugito Sugito Suhari Suhari Suharyo Hadisaputro Suhermi, Novri Sukro, Sukro Sulistiawati Sulistiawati SULISTIYANI SULISTIYANI Sulistya, Angga Dwi Sulistyani Sulistyani Sulistyawati Sulistyawati Sumarno Sumarno Supangat Supangat, Supangat Suparno Suparno Supriyana Supriyana, Supriyana Suratman Suratman Suripto Suripto Suryati Kumorowulan Susilowati, Devi Ayu Susilowati, Devi Ayu Sutardi Sutardi Suwito Suwito Suyono Suyono T. Windarti Tati Tati Tatiek Dyah Wardani, Tatiek Dyah Thamrin, Jumianti Lestari Thamrin, Jumianti Lestari Theresia Patty, Fara Imelda Theresia Ristadeli Titi Suherni Titi, Dea Astri Titiek Praptini, Titiek Tjahjono Kuntjoro Tjahjono, Achmad Toni Prahasto Tresnasari, Suci Tri Joko Tri Murti Tri Saptuti Susiani, Tri Saptuti Trimanto Trimanto Trismianto Asmo Sutrisno Sutrisno Triwid Syafarotun Najah, Triwid Syafarotun Ucu Cahyana, Ucu Udi Harmoko Udin Bahrudin, Udin Ulandari, Githa Ulfa Nurullita Umi Athiyah, Umi Umrah, Siti Undang, Undang Utami, Nunik Tri Virana, Irna Vita Ratnasari W. H. 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