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PENGARUH KEBIJAKAN FISKAL TERHADAP PEMBANGUNAN SEKTOR PERTANIAN KABUPATEN DAN KOTA DI PROVINSI SULAWESI SELATAN Akhmad, A,; Achsani, Noer Azam; Tambunan, Mangara; Mulyo, Sumedi Andoyo
AGRIBUSINESS JOURNAL Vol 7, No 1 (2013): AGRIBUSINESS JOURNAL
Publisher : Departement of Agribusiness Faculty of Science and Technology

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15408/aj.v7i1.5167

Abstract

Hasil penelitian tersebut menunjukkan bahwa kebijakan fiskal memberi dampak positif dalam pembangunan pertanian. Oleh karena itu pemerintah daerah kabupaten dan kota di Provinsi Selatan dalam era otonomi daerah dewasa ini, diharapkan dapat mengambil kebijakan fiskal yang dapat mendorong pembangunan pertanian, mengingat sebagaian besar penduduknya berkerja pada sektor pertanian di perdesaan dengan tingkat penghasilan yang rendah, maka penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui dampak kebijakan fiskal daerah terhadap pembangunan pertanian kabupaten/kota di Provinsi Sulawesi Selatan.  Penelitian ini menggunakan model ekonometrika dengan sistem persamaan simultan. Model sistem persamaan simultan yang dibangun terdiri atas 19 persamaan struktural dan 8 persamaan identitas. Model tersebut dibagi ke dalam tiga blok meliputi blok (1) fiskal, (2) permintaan agregat, dan (3) kinerja perekonomian. Hasil penelitian ditemukan bahwa kebijakan fiskal yang dilakukan oleh  pemerintah daerah terutama belanja modal sektor pertanian, dapat meningkatkan PDRB sektor pertanain dan pendapatan petani. Sementara belanja modal non pertanian dapat mendorong investasi swasta. Selanjutnya  investasi  swasta dapat mendorong peningkatan produk domestik regional non pertanian. Disamping itu investasi swasta juga dapat menurunkan angka pengangguran. Sementara kemisikinan dapat diturunkan seiring dengan peningkatan produk domestik regional bruto. Pada sisi lain kebijakan fiskal dengan tujuan untuk meningkatkan  pendapatan asli daerah dapat mengurangi investasi swasta. Hal ini menunjukkan bahwa apabila pemerintah daerah memaksakan untuk menggali potensi pajak dan retribusi daerah, dapat menimbulkan high cost economy yang berdampak pada turunnya investasi. Dengan keterbatasan APBD, maka perlu dilakukan efisiensi penggunaan anggaran terutama pada belanja lain-lain, dan belanja barang dan jasa,  selanjutnya digunakan untuk meningkatkan belanja modal untuk memperbaiki infrastrukur yang ada.
PERKIRAAN DAMPAK KRISIS KEUANGAN TERHADAP EKONOMI, KHUSUSNYA SEKTOR PERTANIAN DAN AGRIBISNIS DI INDONESIA TAMBUNAN, MANGARA
SOCA: Jurnal Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian Vol. 1, No. 1 Februari 2001
Publisher : Program Studi Agribisnis, Fakultas Pertanian, Universitas Udayana Jalan PB.Sudirman Denpasar, Bali, Indonesia. Telp: (0361) 223544 Email: soca@unud.ac.id

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Abstract

Beginning from the monetary crisis of Bath-Thailand, then gradually to spread tosouth-east Asia Countries and finally has been Indonesia monetary crisis started the thirdweek in July 1997. Monetary crisis this time to indicate that Indonesia economics more andmore open and integrated with world economics. Really Indonesia to face three kind crisisi.e.: (1) Exchange rate crisis where depreciation of rupiah value toward dollars, (2) foreigndebt crisis in big quantity, which made by private and government, and (3) probably soinfected by diminishing expectation of the community toward various of economics andfinancial institutionsTo measure the impact of monetary crisis toward quantitatively economics can be notacted now yet. What that can be acted is to expect its impacts toward economics, especially toagriculture or agribusiness sectors. For need of this research-collected macroeconomics datain the last time that sources from secondary data, processed and analyzed. Because thisresearch especially to expect the impact of monetary crisis toward agriculture or agribusinesssectors, so the agriculture data collected, processed and analyzed detailer.The result of analysis to indicate that monetary crisis in Indonesia that indicated by hasbeen weak of rupiah value to dollars, has impact toward agriculture or agribusiness sectors.Yet, impact intensity depend on: (1) sources of raw material (domestic or foreign), (2)structure of output marketing for domestic or international, and (3) structure of capital, equityand firm portfolio of agribusiness mentioned. Viewed from costly structure and return, soportion of import of input and export of output in agriculture sector significantly to influencetoward performance of agriculture or agribusiness sectors.For the agriculture or agribusiness firms that using domestic raw material in theirsproduction process, monetary crisis maybe not influence so big, if mostly theirs outputexported, this crisis will positive impact. Yet, if agriculture or agribusiness firms using rawmaterial from foreign in its production process (example cotton), monetary crisis has influencetoward costs structure (increase the cost of input and output per unit) to be bigger. If theirsoutput market for domestic, so will be gloomier. In this condition, monetary crisis has negativeinfluence toward performance of agribusiness mentioned.Result of the monetary crisis, need be acted a reevaluation to measure rate of return(ROI) investment in agriculture sector. In the last time ROR in agriculture sector only range15 percent. Not impossible if this monetary crisis has made the populace agriculture is notinteresting for investor.
ANALISIS PENUTUPAN HUTAN SEBAGAI TAKSIRAN DEFORESTASI: SUATU MODEL EKONOMETRIKA Tjandrakirana, Roosi; Tambunan, Mangara
Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia Vol 7, No 1 (2006): Juli
Publisher : Department of Economics-FEUI

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Abstract

Deforestation speed was increasing fastly from 1,87 million ha/year on the 1985-1997 period to 2,6 million ha/year on 1998-2000 period This increase in speed cause many problems such as: a decrease in environment quality, the drastic decrease inforest timber production which affects timber supply,erc. There are many factors affecting a change in the forest coverage. At first, management of Forest Utilization Right (HPH) and the development of timber industry are perceived as the cause of the increase in deforestation speed. However, there are other argument that propose an increase in the number offarmers and nomad farmer in forest area as the cruse the change inforest coverage.The purpose of this study is to get a picture of the direct cause of the change in forest coverage . This study use panel data method for 19 provinces from I976 to 2000. The results show that there is a positive relationship between speed of deforesiation and forest coverage. Logging activity and forest conversion contribute to the change in forest coverage where forest conversion has bigger impact on the speed of deforestation. This analysis indicates that forest conversion is the major cause of deforestation in Indonesia. The conversion of forest into plantation is the major cause of deforestation in Indonesia. on the other hand, the number of small famers or people live inforest area has very little impact on deforestation.
ANALISIS DAMPAK LIBERALISASI PERDAGANGAN KAWASAN EKONOMI ASIA TERHADAP KINERJA EKONOMI MAKRO ASEAN Zulkarnaen, Ichsan; Oktaviani, Rina; Tambunan, Mangara; Yulius, Yulius
JURNAL EKONOMI DAN KEBIJAKAN PEMBANGUNAN Vol. 1 No. 2 (2012): Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pembangunan
Publisher : IPB University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (616.174 KB) | DOI: 10.29244/jekp.1.2.104-119

Abstract

This research intends to explore the impact of trade liberalization on macroeconomic performances, especially on Indonesia and other ASEAN Countries. The GTAP model is used as the main tool of analysis. The findings show that the benefit of the trade liberalization is still dominated by developed countries such as Japan and China. The elimination of import tariff results an increase in economic growth and economic welfare on all participated countries. It also results in an increase in GDP deflator and terms of trade which meant decreasing competitiveness.  Keywords: Asia trade liberalization, ASEAN countries, GTAP model
DISAIN LEMBAGA PEMBIAYAAN PERTANIAN NASIONAL SUBSEKTOR TANAMAN PANGAN MENGGUNAKAN PENDEKATAN INTEPRETATIVE STRUCTURAL MODELING (ISM) Saptono, Imam Teguh; Marimin, Marimin; Tambunan, Mangara; Oktaviani, Rina
Jurnal Manajemen & Agribisnis Vol. 7 No. 2 (2010): Vol. 7 No. 2 Oktober 2010
Publisher : School of Business, Bogor Agricultural University (SB-IPB)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (776.221 KB) | DOI: 10.17358/jma.7.2.84-96

Abstract

In year 2009, the agricultural sector contributed around 15% of Indonesia?s GDP, and absorbed around 44 million of total workforce. As the biggest GDP contributor and workforce absorption within the sector, foodcrops holds a strategic role in providing national food security. In line with ensuring food security program government has promulgated a national agricultural revitalization agenda, which one of the programs is providing a financing scheme for small scale farmer. At the implementation level, the program was not performed yet, due to the weaknesses of existing institutions.In turn it resulted in the significant gap of financing and investment in the agricultural sector. The aim of this research is to design a model of financial institution a nation wide level, focussing on foodcrops financing using Interpretative Structural Modeling (ISM) which then supported by Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). The combination of ISM, systems approach and AHP are designated to accommodate the complexity of the object. The respondents involved are experts from various related institutions.  ISM analysis indicated that price stability, government commitment, geographic coverage, suitability of the institution with local conditions, and return of investment are strong sub-elements drivers among the sub-elements of the system. The recommendation of institution design by using AHP is to develop a new non-bank financial institution, set up by the government that focuses their financing baesd on supply chain approach. (Key words:   Financial Institution,  Foodcrops, ISM, AHP)                   
THE RESEARCH OBJECTIVES ARE TO ANALYZE IMPACT OF HUMAN CAPITAL INVESTMENT ON INCOME DISTRIBUTION AND POVERTY INCIDENCE USING THE COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM (CGE) MODEL.  THE MODEL IS COMBINED WITH BETA DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION AND FOSTER-GREER-THORBECKE.  THE HUMAN CAPITAL INVESTMENT IS APPROACHED BY GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE FOR EDUCATION AND HEALTH.  THE SIMULATION RESULT SHOWS THAT HUMAN CAPITAL INVESTMENT IS ABLE TO INCREASE ECONOMIC GROWTH AND HOUSEHOLD INCOME.  INCOME DISTRIBUTION ESPECI Sitepu, Rasidin Karo Karo; Sinaga, Bonar M.; Oktaviani, Rina; Tambunan, Mangara
Forum Pasca Sarjana Vol. 32 No. 2 (2009): Forum Pascasarjana
Publisher : Forum Pasca Sarjana

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Abstract

The research objectives are to analyze impact of human capital investment on income distribution and poverty incidence using the computable general equilibrium (CGE) Model.  The model is combined with beta distribution function and Foster-Greer-Thorbecke.  The human capital investment is approached by government expenditure for education and health.  The simulation result shows that human capital investment is able to increase economic growth and household income.  Income distribution especially in rural area becomes more equal which is shown by the beta distribution move to the right side of poverty line.  Poverty incidence, poverty gap and poverty severity also decrease except for non-labor household group in the urban area.  Human capital investment gives more benefit to household in rural area than those in urban area especially for farm-laborer and agriculture entrepreneur household group in the rural area.   Key words: CGE model, Foster-Greer-Thorbecke, beta distribution function, human capital investment, poverty line
Analisis Penutupan Hutan sebagai Taksiran Deforestasi : Suatu Model Ekonometrika Tjandrakirana, Roosi; Tambunan, Mangara
Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia Vol 7 No 1 (2006): Juli
Publisher : Department of Economics-FEB UI

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (300.615 KB) | DOI: 10.21002/jepi.v7i1.145

Abstract

Deforestation speed was increasing fastly from 1,87 million ha/year on the 1985-1997 period to 2,6 million ha/year on 1998-2000 period. This increase in speed cause many problems such as: a decrease in environment quality, the drastic decrease in forest timber production which affects timber supply,etc. There are many factors affecting a change in the forest coverage. At first, management of Forest Utilization Right (HPH) and the development of timber industry are perceived as the cause of the increase in deforestation speed. However, there are other argument that propose an increase in the number of farmers and nomad farmer in forest area as the cause the change in forest coverage. The purpose of this study is to get a picture of the direct cause of the change in forest coverage. This study use panel data method for 19 provinces from 1976 to 2000. The results show that there is a positive relationship between speed of deforestation and forest coverage. Logging activity and forest conversion contribute to the change in forest coverage where forest conversion has bigger impact on the speed of deforestation. This analysis indicates that forest conversion is the maior cause of deforestation in Indonesia. The conversion of forest into plantation is the major cause of deforestation in Indonesia. On the other hand the number of small farmers or people live in forest area has very little impact on deforestation.  
FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI SUSTAINABILITAS PERTUMBUHAN FINANSIAL LEMBAGA KEUANGAN MIKRO DI JAWA TIMUR Sundari, Siti; Daryanto, Arief; Tambunan, Mangara; Saefuddin, Asep
Jurnal Manajemen & Agribisnis Vol. 9 No. 1 (2012): Vol. 9 No. 1 Maret 2012
Publisher : School of Business, Bogor Agricultural University (SB-IPB)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (661.317 KB) | DOI: 10.17358/jma.9.1.31-41

Abstract

Since the monetary crisis in 1998, Indonesia's economy has not fully recovered as indicated by slow economic growth which has not reached yet 8% each year. These conditions load to growing number of unemployed and hence create many demand from the large number of micro enterprise for loan. There were about 50 million micro entrepreneurs which was served only by 56 thousand units of MFIs (Microfinance Institution). This fact intrigued a deep comprehensive analysis at supply side, i.e. the MFIs. The analysis was to study factors that inhibit the sustainability growth of MFIs in order to increase the number of micro business loans. The research was located in East Java province due to the fact that more than 70% MFIs located in Java island and the largest MFIs is in East Java. The samples were obtained by purposive sampling technique and then analysed using descriptive statistics, ordinal logistic regression and biplot. The result proved that the factors which significantly influence the growth of financial sustainability were Regulation, Institutions, Efficiency, CAR (Capital Adequacy Ratio), ROE (Return on Equity), ROA (Return on Asset), LDR (Loan to Deposit Ratio), loan, NPL (Non Performing Loan), HRD (Human Resources Development) and Interest rates. While the factors that did not have significant effect were competition and income per capita.Keyword : Microfinance Institutions (MFIs), Performance Analyze, Financial Sustainability, Ordinal Logistic Regression
THE PURPOSES OF THIS RESEARCH WERE, (1) TO ANALYZE FISCAL POLICY IMPACT ON FOOD SECURITY PERFORMANCE AND (2) TO DETERMINE STRATEGIC POLICY ON FOOD SECURITY IN NORTH SUMATERA PROVINCE.  MODEL OF FISCAL POLICY IN NORTH SUMATERA PROVINCE WHICH WAS BUILT WITH THE DYNAMIC SIMULTANEOUS EQUATIONS SYSTEM AND USED 2SLS WITH SYSLIN AND SIMNLIN PROCEDURES.  IN THIS STUDY WE ALSO USED POOLED DATA IN 1990-2007 PERIOD.  THE RESULTS OF THIS STUDY SHOWED THAT (1) FACTORS OF  FISCAL PERFORMANCE IN NORTH SUMA Situmorang, Boyke T. H.; ., Harianto; Tambunan, Mangara; Kusnadi, Nunung
Forum Pasca Sarjana Vol. 33 No. 2 (2010): Forum Pascasarjana
Publisher : Forum Pasca Sarjana

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Abstract

The purposes of this research were, (1) to analyze fiscal policy impact on food security performance and (2) to determine strategic policy on food security in North Sumatera Province.  Model of fiscal policy in North Sumatera Province which was built with the dynamic simultaneous equations system and used 2SLS with SYSLIN and SIMNLIN procedures.  In this study we also used pooled data in 1990-2007 period.  The results of this study showed that (1) factors of  fiscal performance in North Sumatera, i.e. local tax and tax sharing were influenced by local GDP positively, otherwise general alocation funds and local retribution were not  influenced by local GDP; (2) during fiscal policy, food security performance increased, which was interpreted with increasing on live expectation age, decreasing infant mortality number, and malnutrition number; (3) in simulation section, decreasing of illiteracy and health expenditure gave better impact on food security and also increasing local GDP than other simulation.  Fiscal policy, especially in health and education sector, will stimulate quality social life in the future.   Key words: local fiscal policy, food security, simultaneous equations
DAMPAK INFRASTRUKTUR JALAN TERHADAP PEREKONOMIAN PULAU JAWA-BALI DAN SUMATERA Napitupulu, Muktar; Tambunan, Mangara; Daryanto, Arief; Oktaviani, Rina
Jurnal Jalan-Jembatan Vol 28 No 1 (2011)
Publisher : Pusat Penelitian dan Pengembangan Jalan dan Jembatan

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Abstract

ABSTRAKPrasarana jalan dan jembatan berperan dalam penggunaan ekonomi bangsa, namun dampak terhadap  perekonomian belum diteliti secara cermat. Tulisan ini bermaksud menganalisis dampak ekonomi investasi jalan dan jembatan dengan model Inter-regional Social Accounting Matrix Jawa Sumatera 2007.Hasil analilsis menunjukan: (1) Investasi jalan dan jembatan di Sumatera dan Jawa-Bali paling dinikmati oleh sektor perdagangan, restoran dan hotel,dan sektor industri makanan, minuman dan tembakau namun kurang berpihak pada sektor pertanian; (2) Keterkaitan atau ketergantungan sektor-sektor produksi tehadap konstruksi jalan dan jembatan di Sumatera cukup besar; (3) Dampak limpahan sektor jalan dan jembatan dari Sumatera ke Jawa-Bali berkisar 5 kali lebih besar daripada limoahan dari Jawa-Bali ke Sumatera menyebabkan kesenjangan oendapatan Sumatera dengan Jawa-Bali semakin melebar; (4) Rumah tangga pengusaha golongan rendah di desa memperoleh pendapatan tertinggi dari investasi jalandi Sumatera sementara untuk investasi jalan di Jawa-Bali rumah tangga pengusaha golongan rendah di kota memperoleh pendapatan yang terbesar; (5) Kontribusi jalan dan jembatan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Jawwa-Bali dan Sumatera terhadap tahun 2007 naik 0.17 persen tahun 2008, naik 0.20 persen 2009 dan naik 0.28 persen tahun 2010.Kata Kunci : Interegional Social Accounting Matrix, dampak limpahan, ketertarikan belakang dan kedepan, analisis penggandaan, pertumbuhan ekonomi