Resnia, Ranni
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Journal : Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan

FLUKTUASI HARGA BAHAN PANGAN POKOK (BAPOK) DAN DAYA BELI KELOMPOK MASYARAKAT BERPENDAPATAN RENDAH Resnia, Ranni
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 6, No 2 (2012)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (1198.204 KB) | DOI: 10.30908/bilp.v6i2.130

Abstract

Harga bahan pangan pokok cenderung meningkat selama 3 tahun terakhir dan diprediksi akan terus naik. Harga tersebut naik 5-12% per tahun selama tahun 1999-2011. Harga beras, gula dan daging ayam juga cukup berfluktuasi dengan Koefisien Keragaman masingmasing sebesar 13,7%, 10,0% dan 9,1%. Hasil analisis paritas impor juga menunjukkan bahwa perbedaan harga eceran domestik untuk beras dan tepung terigu dengan paritas impornya adalah 20,0% dan 59,4 %. Hal ini menunjukkan bahwa konsumen tidak menerima harga yang seharusnya yang mungkin disebabkan oleh tidak efisiennya proses produksi dan distribusi serta struktur pasar yang kurang kompetitif. Namun demikian, kenaikan harga-harga tersebut tidak dapat dikompensasikan secara proporsional oleh kenaikan pendapatan beberapa kelompok masyarakat. Oleh karena itu analisis ini bertujuan untuk memberikan gambaran pengaruh dinamika harga bahan pangan pokok terhadap daya beli masyarakat berpendapatan rendah dengan metode rasio dan indeks. Hasil analisis menunjukkan khususnya pada krisis pangan tahun 2009, daya beli mereka turun 1–5%. Selama periode tersebut, daya beli buruh tani dan bangunan masing-masing turun 5% dan 3%. Bahkan, sejak tahun 2005 daya beli buruh manufaktur sudah mengalami penurunan. Prices of staple  foods  have been increasing for last three years and estimated to continue to rise. The prices have grown 5-12% annually during the period of 1999-2011. In particular, prices of rice, sugar and chicken meat were also considerably fluctuated with Coefficient of Variation (CV) of 13.7%, 10,0% and 9.1%, respectively. Additionally, import parity analysis shows that discrepancies between domestic retail price of rice and wheat flour and their import parity reached 20,0%  and 59.4%, respectively. This indicates that consumers receive higher prices than they should have due to inefficiency in production process, distribution and less competitive market structure. Nonetheless, the price hikes are not fully compensated by wage increase of low-income groups. In the period of 2009 food crisis, their  purchasing power declined by 1–5%. During the period, purchasing power of labors in agriculture and construction sector was declining by 5% and 3% respectively. Purchasing power of labors in manufacturing sector has even started declining since 2005.
KEBIJAKAN STABILISASI HARGA BERAS Resnia, Ranni; Wirastuti, Astari
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 3, No 1 (2009)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (4923.438 KB) | DOI: 10.30908/bilp.v3i1.170

Abstract

The rice retail price the research period is relatively stable and in a moderat range. The most unstable rice retail prince happened in Jakarta and Surabaya. The third and fourth week of December and the second week until the end of February are the periods which need special attention from the Government of Indonesia (GOI). According to the research results, there are five variables that influence the price of rice which are:  previous rice prince, gasoline price, harvested area, final stock of rice by Bulog, and market operation by Bulog. Rice price is more unstable if the fluctuation of gasoline priceis higher than previous price, the rice stock mobilization from Bulog worst, rice import volume is low, and the market operation policy is more effective if it is supported by the stable gsoline price because this price in stability has the strongest influence towards rice price instability. To minimize the impact of the increasing rice price to the poor, GOI is in the right track by implementing the Safety Net Programme ( Jaringan Pengaman Sosial/JPS programme). Nevertheless, this programme needs further improvement.There are few alternative to improve PP No. 68/2002. Firstly, if the price increases more than 25% to be the indicator for price unstabil then the time reference should be changed from 3 months i9nto 6 months. Secondly, if we want to the price indicator decrease from 25% to 15% if we still want to use the 3 months time reference. 
ANALISIS FAKTOR DAN PROYEKSI KONSUMSI PANGAN NASIONAL: KASUS PADA KOMODITAS: BERAS, KEDELAI DAN DAGING SAPI Nur, Yudha Hadian; Nuryati, Yati; Resnia, Ranni; Santoso, Ahmad Sigit
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 6, No 1 (2012)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30908/bilp.v6i1.137

Abstract

Ketahanan pangan merupakan isu yang selalu menjadi perhatian pemerintah Indonesia. Hal ini terbukti dengan tingginya intensitas kebijakan pada pasar bahan pangan pokok. Studi ini bertujuan: 1) mengidentifikasi faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi tingkat konsumsi beras, kedelai dan daging sapi secara nasional; 2) mengestimasi elastisitas permintaan dan penawaran beras, kedelai, dan daging sapi; 3) mengestimasi konsumsi beras, kedelai, dan daging sapi untuk periode 2011 – 2013; 4) merekomendasikan kebijakan terkait produksi dan konsumsi beras, kedelai dan daging sapi. Analisis ini menggunakan metode OLS untuk mengestimasi elastisitas penawaran dan permintaan, serta LA/AIDS model untuk mengestimasi konsumsi komoditi tersebut. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa konsumsi beras dan kedelai inelastis terhadap harga, sedangkan konsumsi daging sapi elastis terhadap harga daging sapi itu sendiri. Analisis proyeksi konsumsi menunjukkan bahwa konsumsi beras, kedelai dan daging sapi diperkirakan akan meningkat 2,2 %, 0,8%, dan 4% per tahun. Perlu dilakukan upaya-upaya dalam rangka peningkatan produksi, produktivitas dan upaya stabilisasi pasokan dan harga untuk menjamin keterjangkauan konsumsi pangan. Food security has always been an imperative issue for any ruling Indonesian government. Highly-regulated staple foods market indicates their strategic roles in the Indonesian economy. The objectives of this paper are 1) to identify factors affecting the level of national consumption on rice, soybeans and beef; 2) to estimate supply and demand elasticity of rice, soybeans and beef; 3) to project the consumption of rice, soybeans and beef for 20112013; 4) to formulate a policy recommendation to sustain production and consumption of rice, soybeans and beef. This paper uses Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method to estimate supply and demand elasticity and Linear Approximation from Almost Ideal Demand System (LA/AIDS) method to estimate the consumption of respective food commodities. The result shows that consumption of rice and soybeans are inelastic to their own prices while the consumption of beef is elastic to its own price. Consumption projection of the commodities shows that by 2013, consumption of rice, soybeans and beef will increase annually by 2.2%, 0.8% and 4%, respectively. It is necessary to issue the policies to increase production, productivity, and to have the stability of supply and price of respective commodities.