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Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan
ISSN : 19799187     EISSN : 25282751     DOI : -
Core Subject : Economy,
First published in 2007, Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan (BILP) is a scientific journal published by the Trade Analysis dan Development Agency (Badan Pengkajian dan Pengembangan Perdagangan - BPPP), Ministry of Trade, Republic of Indonesia. This bulletin is expected to be a media of dissemination and analysis of research results to be used as references for academics, practitioners, policy-makers, and the general public. In collaboration with professional associations, The Indonesian Society of Agricultural Economics (Perhimpunan Ekonomi Pertanian Indonesia - PERHEPI), BILP publishes research reports and analysis of trade sector and/or sector-related trade which have not been published in any other journals/scholarly publications, either in Bahasa Indonesia or English. Publishing twice a year in July and December, this Bulletin is directly disseminated to stakeholders both in print and online.
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HUBUNGAN ANTARA CONSUMPTION ABROAD (MODA 2) DENGAN COMMERCIAL PRESENCE (MODA 3) DI SEKTOR JASA PARIWISATA INDONESIA Fawaiq, Muhammad
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 10, No 1 (2016)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30908/bilp.v10i1.31

Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis hubungan antara Moda 2 dan Moda 3 dalam perdagangan internasional di sektor jasa pariwisata. Metode penelitian yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah Panel Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Granger. Data yang digunakan adalah data kedatangan wisatawan mancanegara dan Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) jasa hotel dan restoran tahun 1997-2014 di Bali, Jakarta, Kepulauan Riau dan Sumatera Utara. Daerah-daerah ini berkontribusi sebesar 81,26% dari total kedatangan wisatawan mancanegara di Indonesia dan 68% terhadap total FDI di jasa hotel dan restoran Indonesia. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa tidak terdapat hubungan kausalitas jangka pendek antara kedua variabel tetapi terdapat hubungan jangka panjang satu arah yaitu variabel Moda 3 dipengaruhi oleh variabel Moda 2. Hasil pengujian pada gabungan antara jangka panjang dan jangka pendek menujukkan bahwa variabel Moda 3 secara kuat dipengaruhi oleh variabel Moda 2. Dengan demikian diketahui bahwa semakin banyak jumlah wisatawan mancanegara yang datang ke Indonesia maka akan mendorong meningkatnya FDI di jasa hotel dan restoran, tetapi meningkatnya FDI di jasa tersebut tidak signifikan berpengaruh terhadap masuknya jumlah wisatawan mancanegara. This paper examines the relationship between Mode 2 and Mode 3 of international trade in tourism sector. The method used is the Panel Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Granger. The data used in this study were the number of foreign tourist arrivals and the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in some hotels and restaurants during 1997-2014 in Bali, Jakarta, Riau Islands and Nort Sumatera.These regions contributed for 81.26% out of the total tourist arrivals in Indonesia and 68% of the total FDI in the services of hotels and restaurants Indonesia. The results using VECM Granger demonstrated that there was no short-term causality relationship between these two variables but they had a long-term causality relationship that the Moda 3 was affected by the variable mode 2. Test results on a combination of long-term and short-term showed that the variable mode 3 was strongly influenced by variable mode 2. Thus, it is known that the more foreign tourists coming to Indonesia, the more FDI we gained from the service of hotels and restaurants, but this increase does not significantly affect the number of foreign tourists.
TRANSMISI HARGA ASIMETRI DALAM RANTAI PASOK BAWANG MERAH DAN HUBUNGANNYA DENGAN IMPOR DI INDONESIA: STUDI KASUS DI BREBES DAN JAKARTA Ruslan, Januar Arifin; Firdaus, Muhammad; ., Suharno
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 10, No 1 (2016)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30908/bilp.v10i1.33

Abstract

Disparitas harga bawang merah di tingkat petani dan konsumen sangat besar. Penelitian ini menganalisis transmisi harga dalam rantai pasok bawang merah dan menjelaskan faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi transmisi harga serta menganalisis hubungan antara harga bawang merah impor terhadap harga produsen dan harga konsumen bawang merah. Penelitian ini menggunakan model Houck dan Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) serta uji kointegrasi dan kausalitas jangka panjang. Data yang digunakan merupakan data bulanan pada petani, pedagang grosir, pengecer di Kabupaten Brebes dan Kota Jakarta serta harga bawang merah impor selama Januari 2008 sampai Desember 2014. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa dalam hubungan petani-grosir terjadi asimetris harga dalam jangka pendek karena terkait dengan biaya penyesuaian, sedangkan grosir-pengecer terjadi asimetris dalam jangka panjang karena terkait dengan penyalahgunaan kekuatan pasar. Penelitian ini juga menunjukkan pentingnya peran dari harga impor bawang merah dalam penentuan harga bawang merah di tingkat produsen dan konsumen. Kebijakan harga plafon (ceiling price) dan harga dasar (floor price) diharapkan dapat menghindari perilaku eksploitasi yang dilakukan pedagang perantara. Shallot, as a potential commodity in Indonesia, has a large price disparity between the farmer and the consumer prices. The price disparity is also linked to the price of shallots import. This research analyzes the price transmission of shallots during its supply chain, discusses the factors influencing the price transmission, and also investigates the relationship between the price of import and the price of producer-and-consumer.This research uses the Houck Model, Error Correction Mechanism (ECM), cointegration test and longrun causality test.The data were monthly price data of farmers, wholesalers, and retailers in Brebes regency and Jakarta; and prices of shallot import  during January 2008 to December 2014.The results showed that the relationship between farmer and wholesale was asymmetric in the short term of price transmission, even in the long term of transmission wholesalers and retailers was also having asymmetric relationship. The asymmetric price transmission in the short term was related to adjusment cost while the asymetric price transmission in the long term indicated the abuse of market power. This study reveals the important role of price import in the farm and retailer prices. It is suggested to set up ceiling price and floor price in order to avoid the exploitative behavior of middlemen.
TRADE FACILITATION AND THE PERFORMANCE OF INDONESIAN MANUFACTURING EXPORT Luthfianto, Aulia; Priyarsono, D S; Barreto, Raul
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 10, No 1 (2016)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30908/bilp.v10i1.29

Abstract

Penelitian ini menganalisa dampak dari fasilitasi perdagangan pada kinerja ekspor manufaktur Indonesia. Data spesifik dari masing-masing negara baik Indonesia dan tigapuluh mitra dagang utama dari komoditi manufaktur selama periode 2010 hingga 2014 digunakan dalam membangun indikator fasilitasi perdagangan, termasuk langkah-langkah dalam lingkungan kepabeanan dan regulasi, efisiensi pelabuhan, dan infrastruktur di sektor jasa. Hubungan antara kinerja ekspor Indonesia dan indikator tersebut kemudian di estimasi menggunakan gravity model dengan data panel. Hasil analisa menunjukan bahwa fasilitasi perdagangan dalam lingkungan kepabeanan dari Indonesia dan mitra dagang utama nya berpengaruh besar dan positif terhadap kinerja ekspor manufaktur Indonesia, sementara lingkungan regulasi di Indonesia mengurangi arus perdagangan. Kerjasama perdagangan dengan negara-negara ASEAN berdampak positif dan signifikan terhadap kinerja ekspor manufaktur Indonesia. Implikasi kebijakan yang dapat disarankan adalah dengan memprioritaskan upaya dalam lingkungan kepabeanan Indonesia dan mitra dagang, melalui peningkatan efisiensi waktu dan biaya yang diperlukan dalam melakukan perdagangan. Selain itu, meningkatkan kerjasama perdagangan dalam kawasan ASEAN akan dapat meningkatkan kinerja ekspor Indonesia.This paper analyzes the impact of trade facilitation on Indonesian manufacturing export performance. Some specific data of Indonesia and thirty countries as Indonesian main trading partners of manufacture commodities over the period 2010 to 2014 were used to construct trade facilitation indicators, including measures in the customs and regulatory environment, port efficiency, and service sector infrastructure. The relationship between Indonesian export performance and these indicators were estimated using a gravity model with panel data. The findings provide some evidence that trade facilitation on customs environment of Indonesia and its trading partners largely and positively affects Indonesian manufacturing export performance, while the Indonesian regulatory environment deters the trade flows. Trade partnerships with ASEAN countries positively and significantly affect Indonesian manufacturing export performance. It is suggested for policy implication to prioritise efforts and development on Indonesian customs environment and its trading partners, through time and cost efficiency to trade. Moreover, Indonesia should generate more trade within ASEAN region which could stimulate a higher export performance.
DAMPAK KEBIJAKAN PEMERINTAH TERHADAP USAHA TANI BERAS ORGANIK DI PROVINSI JAWA BARAT Jakiyah, Ulpah; Baga, Lukman M; Tinaprilla, Netti
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 10, No 1 (2016)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30908/bilp.v10i1.34

Abstract

Salah satu kebijakan Menteri Pertanian berkenaan dengan ekspor dan impor beras adalah peningkatan ekspor jenis beras khusus, seperti beras organik. Permintaan pasar global beras organik semakin meningkat, tetapi Indonesia menghadapi pesaing seperti Thailand dan Vietnam. Meskipun demikian, petani beras organik di Provinsi Jawa Barat menunjukkan kemampuan daya saingnya dengan keberhasilannya melakukan ekspor ke negara Amerika Serikat, Jerman, Malaysia, Singapura, Belanda, Italia, dan Dubai. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis daya saing beras organik, dan mengidentifikasi dampak kebijakan pemerintah terhadap kegiatan usaha tani beras organik. Metode analisis yang digunakan adalah Policy Analysis Matrix (PAM). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa varietas beras organik memiliki daya saing yang cukup untuk ekspor, terlihat pada keunggulan kompetitif (Private Cost Ratio) dan komparatif (Domestic Resource Cost Ratio). Penerimaan secara finansial maupun sosial dapat memenuhi biaya input domestik. Keunggulan kompetitif dan komparatif melemah akibat dari adanya pengaruh biaya sertifikasi lahan pada biaya domestik dan biaya kemasan, sedangkan dampak kebijakan pemerintah terhadap input dan output menguntungkan petani. Kebijakan bersifat efektif namun belum efisien akibat belum adanya lembaga penyediaan input seperti pupuk dan benih organik. One of the agriculture minister policies related to rice exports and imports is the increased number of certain type of rice export such as organic rice.The global demand of organic rice market has been increasing but Indonesia is facing competitors, such as Thailand and Vietnam. Nevertheless, organic rice farmers in west java province are showing their competitive capability by exporting to a United States, Germany, Malaysia, Singapore, The netherlands, Italy, and Dubai. This study aims to analyze the competitiveness of organic rice, and identify the impacts in government policy for the organic rice farming.The result shows that some varieties of organic rice have adequate export competitiveness, seen from the competitive advantage (private cost ratio) and the comparative advantage (domestic cost ratio) which are positive. The analysis method used was Policy Analysis Matrix (PAM). The financial and social revenue could cover the input of domestic cost. The competitive and comparative advantages were weakened as a result of the influence of land certification in the domestic and packaging cost, whereas the impact of government policy to input and output is profitable for farmers. The policy is effective but has not been efficient due to lack of input providers such as fertilizer and organic seeds.
PENENTUAN NEGARA PRIORITAS PENGEMBANGAN ATDAG DAN ITPC MELALUI METODE ANALITYCAL HIERARCHY PROCESS Hasni, Hasni; Faradila, Fitria
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 10, No 1 (2016)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30908/bilp.v10i1.30

Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengembangkan kriteria-kriteria penentuan negara prioritas untuk pengembangan Atase Perdagangan (Atdag)/Indonesia Trade Promotion Centre (ITPC), dan mengidentifikasi negara-negara prioritas untuk mengembangkan Atdag/ITPC yang sudah ada atau mendirikan Atdag/ITPC yang baru. Metode pengkajian yang digunakan adalah Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Data sekunder bersumber dari BPS, Fragile States Index, UN COMTRADE, World Bank dan CEPII. Sedangkan data primer diperoleh dari kegiatan FGD dengan para pelaku ekspor, akademisi dan pejabat Disperindag Jakarta dan Yogyakarta. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa kriteria yang digunakan dalam pemilihan negara prioritas Atdag dan ITPC secara berturut-turut adalah country risk; commercial infrastructure; market growth; trade complementary index; market intensity; trade openness; dan trade cooperation. Keberadaan Atdag dan ITPC sebagai perwakilan perdagangan berperan penting dalam peningkatan ekspor, sehingga perlu penguatan dan pengembangan. Penelitian ini merekomendasikan perlunya penguatan Atdag dan ITPC di 16 negara prioritas serta pembentukan Atdag dan atau ITPC baru di tiga negara prioritas, yaitu Myanmar, Swedia dan Austria. This study aims to develop the main criteria to determine priority countries for new Trade Attaché/ITPC Representatives and to identify priority countries for further development of the Trade Attaché/ITPC Representatives.This study employs an Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) methodology. The secondary data were collected from the BPS, Fragile States Index, UN COMTRADE, World Bank and CEPII. The primary data were collected from qualitative research using Focus Group Discussion (FGD) with the stakeholders in Jakarta and Yogyakarta. The results showed that the main criteria for choosing countries for establishing Atdag and ITPC in sequence were country risk, commercial infrastructure, market growth, trade complementary index, market intensity, trade openness, and trade cooperation. The presence of Trade Attaché/ITPC Representative in many countries has an important role in increasing Indonesia’s export. However, further efforts are required to strengthen their roles, particularly in 16 countries. This study recommends to establish trade attaché and or ITPC in three potential countries: Myanmar, Sweden and Austria.
DINAMIKA KERJASAMA EKONOMI INDONESIA DENGAN ANGGOTA ORGANISASI KONFERENSI ISLAM (OKI): POTENSI DAN PENGARUHNYA TERHADAP PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA Hidayat, Agus Syarip
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 10, No 1 (2016)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30908/bilp.v10i1.21

Abstract

Sejak Organisasi Konferensi Islam (OKI) berdiri tahun 1969, kerjasama ekonomi antar anggotanya yang berjumlah 57 negara terbilang belum intensif. Salah satu indikasinya adalah rendahnya porsi intra-trade dan intra-investment OKI, serta pertumbuhan mereka yang juga relatif lambat. Penelitian ini membahas dinamika kerja sama ekonomi antara Indonesia dan anggota OKI serta prospek liberalisasi ekonomi OKI dan potensi dampaknya terhadap perekonomian Indonesia. Model yang digunakan adalah standard Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP). Analisis menunjukkan bahwa liberalisasi ekonomi OKI berpotensi memberikan dampak sektoral yang beragam bagi Indonesia, khususnya terlihat pada variabel makroekonomi seperti pertumbuhan ekonomi dan inflasi, output industri dan perdagangan. Indonesia dan anggota OKI lainnya dapat memperoleh manfaat optimal ketika diterapkan full liberalization. Oleh karena itu, Indonesia perlu mengambil peran untuk mendorong percepatan dan pendalaman liberalisasi perdagangan yang lebih komprehensif antar anggota OKI. Sebagai langkah awal, Indonesia perlu segera meratifikasi perjanjian Trade Preferential System of the Organization of the Islamic Conference (TPS-OIC). Since the establishment of Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) in 1969, the level of economic cooperation among its 57 member-countries has been limited, indicated by the low portion of intra-trade and intra-investment among the OIC members and their relatively slow growth. This study discusses the dynamic economic cooperation between Indonesia and the OIC members. Further, it analyzes the prospect of OIC economic liberalization and its potential impacts on the Indonesian economy. It uses secondary data and employs the standard of General Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model. It shows that the OIC economic liberalization potentially had varying sectoral impacts on Indonesian economy, which was particularly shown by macroeconomic variables (such as economic growth and inflation), industrial output, and trade. Furthermore, Indonesia and other OIC members would obtain optimum benefits when full liberalization is applied.
PROYEKSI EKSPOR DAN IMPOR INDONESIA: SUATU PENDEKATAN VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE Alhayat, Aditya Paramita; Muslim, Azis
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 10, No 1 (2016)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30908/bilp.v10i1.32

Abstract

Proyeksi ekspor dan impor Indonesia memiliki urgensi penting sebagai salah satu acuan untuk merumuskan target pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional dalam Rencana Pembangunan Jangka Menengah Nasional (RPJMN). Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menyusun proyeksi ekspor dan impor nasional periode 2015-2019 yang dilihat berdasarkan sektor migas dan non migas. Dengan mempertimbangkan berbagai aspek ekonomi eksternal, Vector Autoregression (VAR) digunakan untuk memberikan perkiraan besaran petumbuhan ekspor dan impor di masa mendatang. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa di masa datang pertumbuhan ekspor Indonesia masih dipengaruhi oleh Produk Domestik Bruto negara-negara mitra utama sedangkan impor lebih dipengaruhi oleh beberapa faktor ekonomi domestik. Hasil proyeksi VAR menunjukkan bahwa ekspor nasional pada 2015 turun sebesar 10,65% dan meningkat sebesar 1,06% di tahun 2019, sedangkan impor nasional tahun 2015 turun sebesar 10,02% dan meningkat sebesar 12,11% di tahun 2019. Apabila pemerintah ingin menetapkan target ekspor lebih tinggi dari angka tersebut, maka usaha peningkatan ekspor harus ditopang dengan perbaikan sisi penawaran, dan target impor yang lebih rendah dapat dicapai dengan pengetatan konsumsi migas. Export and import projection is one of the important activities to determine the target of economic growth in the National Medium-Term Development Plan (NMTDP). This study aims to set out the projections of national exports and imports during 2015-2019 according to oil and non-oil sectors. By considering some external factors, Vector Autoregression (VAR) is utilized to forecast the future growth of export and import. The results showed that the future growth of Indonesia’s export was determined by Gross Domestic Product of trading partners, while the Indonesia’s import was influenced by domestic economic factors. The national export in 2015 was projected to decline by 10.65% and to increase by 1.06% in 2019, while the national import was projected to decline by 10.02% in 2015 and increase by 12.11% in 2019. If the government intends to set the export target higher than the projection, the improvement on the supply side must be considered. Moreover, the lower import target could be achieved by tightening the oil and gas consumption.

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